AI so far not a job killer in Germany
The widespread fear was that AI would massively destroy jobs. According to a new analysis, this cannot be observed in the German labor market.
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Artificial intelligence has not proven to be the job killer feared by many in the German labor market so far, according to a study by the Institute for Employment Research (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, IAB). Instead, the situation in jobs that researchers classify as particularly affected by AI has even developed more favorably since 2022 than in positions with less AI impact. However, this only applies to people aged 30 and older; for those new to the workforce, the IAB has at least identified a slight negative influence of AI.
For example, employment growth in AI-affected occupations was almost 6 percentage points higher among 30- to 39-year-olds than in less AI-affected occupations, and around 5 percentage points higher among 40- to 64-year-olds. In the age group of 20 to 29 years, researchers found a slightly negative correlation: full-time employment in highly AI-affected occupations declined by 1.2 percentage points more than in less affected occupations. However, the correlation is not yet statistically significant.
Entry-level jobs suffer from economic conditions
According to the IAB analysis, the main factor for the difficult market for career starters is clearly the gloomy economic outlook. “Above all, the economic weakness of recent years has contributed to declining employment of young employees, while the influence of AI has likely played a rather subordinate role overall”, explained IAB researcher Oliver Schlenker. In general, the positions of young employees are particularly vulnerable to economic cycles.
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Researchers have found a possible warning signal in the manufacturing sector and in jobs that do not require a higher education degree. In both areas, higher AI impact among 20- to 29-year-olds is associated with negative employment development. In general, however, IAB Vice Director Melanie Arntz states: “Higher AI impact does not necessarily mean weaker employment development.” However, AI must continue to be monitored as an influencing factor.
The IAB’s diagnosis that AI has not yet shown significant effects on employment is also consistent with other analyses of the IT labor market. For example, the digital association Bitkom noted that the number of open positions for IT professionals has fallen significantly, attributing this primarily to the weak economy. According to Bitkom, a noticeable loss of IT jobs due to AI cannot be determined – and the majority of companies do not expect one either. The job portal Indeed also noted a massive decline in entry-level positions in IT as well as in other knowledge-based and office jobs – but saw no evidence in the data that this was caused by AI.
(axk)
