Tel Aviv - Israeli officials are expressing growing confidence that after 33 months they have defeated the Palestinian uprising, or intifada.

The Israeli chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon, told Israeli reporters on Wednesday that the developments this week might eventually be seen "as the end" of the conflict. "It is certainly a victory" for Israel, he was quoted as saying.

Some Israeli analysts criticized that conclusion as premature, if not hubristic. Yet for now, the American-brokered talks between the adversaries are being held on what appear to be largely Israeli terms.

Negotiators who three years ago were discussing how to divide Jerusalem are debating how to return partial control of cities that were then under Palestinian authority.

"When the intifada began, the demand was, `End the occupation, because the negotiations led to nothing,'" said Samir al-Mashharawi, a leader of the mainstream Palestinian faction, Fatah. "Now, Palestinian demands are to return back to the situation right before the intifada, and we are negotiating about this."

He said that during one of his terms as an Israeli prisoner, he and other inmates demanded chairs and tables. In response, he said, the Israelis took their mattresses. The prisoners demanded them back.

"After a month, they returned the mattresses, and we felt very happy we achieved something," he said. "Israeli diplomacy is based on this idea."

How the Bush administration will press the peace plan forward is unclear. Violence could erupt again at any moment, and Palestinians have proven they can inflict tremendous pain - including economic loss - on Israel. It was no accident that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon chose an economic conference in Jerusalem today to declare, "For the first time since I entered the office of prime minister, there is a real possibility of an end to terror and the return to normal life."

The Israelis appear to be filling in the details of a new American-backed peace plan, which Israel had resisted, to better suit its perceived interests.

The Israeli Army will not withdraw from any more Palestinian cities until it sees that Palestinian security officers are acting against violent groups in Bethlehem and Gaza, where forces pulled back this week, a senior Israeli military official said today.

Mahmoud Abbas, the appointed Palestinian prime minister, may be seen as an Israeli agent if he jails those who violate the truce. He hopes to gain strength as Israel makes concessions, and for now, the main Palestinian factions have voluntarily suspended attacks.

Israel says that it cannot risk being too indulgent and that Mr. Abbas must act against militants in the next two or three weeks or the peace process will freeze.

Over the course of the conflict, Israel maximized its bargaining position, by taking back territory and encouraging settlers to set up new outposts to extend their grip on the West Bank. By contrast, the Palestinians, whose main demand is statehood, find their negotiating leverage much reduced.

Mr. Mashharawi said they had shown that unless the Israeli occupation ended "there will be no peace and security in the region." And he warned of "another intifada" unless the Israelis moved swiftly to give Palestinians independence.

Israelis say they have forced Palestinians to rethink violence. In March 2002, during a wave of Palestinian attacks, Mr. Sharon declared: "The aim is to increase the number of losses on the other side. Only after they've been battered will we be able to conduct talks."

At the end of that March, Israel launched military offensives to seize Palestinian cities in the West Bank, control of which had been ceded under the Oslo peace process.

Now, the senior military official said, "the Palestinians - at least the ones who make decisions - came to the conclusion that violence will not achieve their political goals."