BERLIN, Aug. 10 - It is well established in politics that being seen as a sure loser can have its advantages. Or at least, that rule seems to be in play in Germany these days, as the country's presumed sure loser, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, facing elections a bit more than five weeks from now, is suddenly no longer being decreed a sure loser at all.

And, of course, that means that the presumed sure winner, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, Angela Merkel, has been faltering. The Sept. 18 national election, seen until a couple of weeks ago as a cakewalk to power for Mrs. Merkel, is, Der Spiegel proclaimed this week, "suddenly wide open again."

Well, maybe not wide open exactly. The poll figures still indicate that Mr. Schröder's Social Democratic Party is something in the neighborhood of 13 or 14 points behind the Christian Democrats, and that, as Richard Hilmer, managing director of the polling firm Infratest dimap, said, "is really quite a difference." Previous polls have shown a wider gap.

Mr. Schröder may have been talking confidently when he recalled recently that the Christian Democrats "opened the Champagne early" in the last election three years ago, only to watch as he engineered a come-from-behind victory. But the main factors behind that victory - the floods in eastern Germany and the debate about the Iraq war - are absent from the picture today.

Moreover, Mrs. Merkel may have been faltering, but she may well recover, benefiting from the same low expectations that are now helping Mr. Schröder. Gary Smith, director of the American Academy in Berlin, a politically independent, privately financed center for advanced study, compares Mrs. Merkel - often seen as a bit dull next to Mr. Schröder - to George W. Bush before the first debate with Al Gore, a debate that Mr. Bush, widely expected to be inept, uninformed and inarticulate, won simply by exceeding those expectations.

Still, at least for the moment, something has swung in the public mood in Germany, and certainly there is a very real possibility that the coalition led by Mrs. Merkel will fail to get a clear majority, forcing it into a murky "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. Two months ago, after major losses by the Social Democrats in state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Mrs. Merkel seemed virtually indomitable, even surpassing Mr. Schröder in the personal popularity contest - in contrast to the parties' standings, in which the Christian Democrats have almost always had a big lead over the Social Democrats.

But now, the same polls that show Mr. Schröder's party losing in September indicate that if the contest for the chancellorship could be head to head, Mr. Schröder versus Mrs. Merkel, Mr. Schröder would get 48 percent of the vote, Mrs. Merkel 39. Another recent poll, by the Forsa Group, shows 51 percent of Germans not wanting a change of government at all, up from 44 percent a couple of months ago.

So what is going on? In part, there is what many newspapers have described as Mrs. Merkel's lackluster campaign performance, a performance taking place in the context of her sure-winner reputation, and a sure winner's missteps tend to be regarded with less forgiveness than a sure loser's.

There was her gaffe, made twice in rapid succession, in which she seems to have confused the gross and net incomes of workers, which may not be terribly serious in itself, but was awkward for someone whose main claim to electability is her supposed mastery of Germany's sad economic picture.

Other gestures that have cost Mrs. Merkel support include her announcement early on that she would favor a 2 percent increase in Germany's 16 percent value-added tax on all purchases. On its own, the idea is aimed at bringing down Germany's uncompetitive labor costs, and in a speech at the American Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday night, Mrs. Merkel offered many more measures aimed at gaining the same result.

But, as the pollster Mr. Hilmer said, "The C.D.U. has always been the party of no tax increases, and the first thing they do is announce an increase in the V.A.T." It was an honest gesture by Mrs. Merkel, political commentators have argued, and she deserves credit for being up front about what will she will do if she does become chancellor. But for the moment, it didn't wash.

It could also be said that Mrs. Merkel has seemed more of a tinkerer with details of the system than a charismatic Thatcher-like leader enunciating a grand alternative vision, and a few weeks ago that did not stop her from looking extremely strong politically. She may, of course, soon look as strong again, especially if she does well in the one televised debate she will have with Mr. Schröder, on Sept. 4.

The mercurial nature of the German mood may have less to do with this or that Merkelian gaffe and more to do with the Germans themselves, perhaps even a tearing at the collective consciousness. In their heads, the Germans seem to know that the Social Democratic and Green Party coalition has failed to lower unemployment and restart the economy, so they are still for Mrs. Merkel.

They also seem to feel that reforms are necessary, but reforms also make them deeply anxious, and, when they are anxious, they also yearn for the candidate they know.

And so, for months the Germans have been expressing their discontent with Mr. Schröder and the governing coalition. And now that Mr. Schröder has become a sure loser, they appear to be experiencing a kind of anticipatory nostalgia for him, along with an anticipatory disillusionment with his presumed successor, whom they will elect even though they like her less, according to polls. It raises the possibility that public opinion will refuse to coalesce behind any government or any program, whether pushed by a victorious Christian Democratic-led coalition, or, if the fragmented electorate so decrees, a coalition with Social Democrats.