A Dangerous Pipedream? 'Nuclear Renaissance Increases Terror Risks'
The nuclear industry has been attempting to rebrand itself in recent years by holding itself up as the panacea to the world's warming climate woes. Nuclear power is being presented as a cheap and clean way to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and thus cut greenhouse gas emissions.
And with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) insisting that emissions be drastically reduced by 2050 to prevent the world from warming up by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) the nuclear industry is finding an increasingly warm reception. But now a leading British research group is arguing that any nuclear expansion would only be a drop in the ocean in terms of future energy needs. More importantly, it would dangerously increase the risk of proliferation and terrorist attacks.
According to the Oxford Research Group, "Even a small expansion in the use of nuclear power for electricity generation would have serious consequences for the spread of nuclear weapons in countries that do not have them, and for nuclear terrorism."
The group's report, released on Wednesday, claims the idea that nuclear power can provide clean and cheap energy is a "myth," largely because it would be impossible to build enough nuclear reactors to make any significant contribution to reducing emissions on a global scale. The report "Too Hot to Handle? The Future of Civil Nuclear Power," comes at a time when many countries, including Britain, are openly considering increasing their reliance on nuclear energy.
In Germany, where the government is officially committed to phasing out all its nuclear power plants by 2021, Chancellor Angela Merkel and her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) are known to be in favor of expanding nuclear power in order to reduce Germany's greenhouse gas emissions. While her hands are tied at the moment due to a coalition agreement with the left-leaning Social Democrats, she is rumored to be laying the foundations for making a return to nuclear energy an issue in the 2009 federal elections.
However, according to the report by the Oxford Research Group any nuclear renaissance would be inherently dangerous in terms of proliferation and terrorism, as well as futile when it comes to tackling global warming.
The Slippery Slope to Proliferation
The report points out that global electricity demand is expected to increase by 50 percent over the next 25 years. There are currently 429 reactors in operation in the world, which account for 16 percent of global electricity. A further 25 new reactors are being built, and another 76 are planned. But to make any impact, the group argues that an estimated 3,000 would need to built by 2075. To put this in perspective, that is about one a week. It contrasts starkly to the highest historic rate of 3.4 reactors going online per year.
"A civil nuclear construction and supply program on this scale is a pipe dream, and completely unfeasible." the report argues.
While nuclear energy may play no more than a supporting role in climate protection, the paper outlines the security risks of a global nuclear revival.
"According to the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), within 30-40 years at least 30 countries are likely to have access to fissile materials from their civil nuclear power programs that can be used for nuclear weapons," it warns. Potentially volatile countries including Saudi Arabia and Syria are also expressing increasing interest in civilian nuclear power-- not to mention Iran, which is currently the focus of a dispute with the West over its nuclear ambitions.
The industry is moving to a new generation of "breeder" reactors. These reactors use less high-grade uranium but produce a much greater amount of weapons-grade plutonium. And with an increased amount of plutonium available, many countries will be tempted to start producing nuclear weapons too. This would lead to what the paper calls a "slow-burning arms race."
Increasing the Risk of Terror Attacks
According to the report, a spread in the use of nuclear energy will not only lead to proliferation, it would also up the risks of radioactive material falling into the wrong hands.
A huge increase in the amount of nuclear power stations would increase the number of potential targets for terrorist attacks. A terrorist group could attack the transport of nuclear material, steal plutonium to build a crude nuclear weapon or "dirty bomb," fly an aircraft into a power station or infiltrate a power plant to sabotage it from the inside. Increasing the number of nuclear facilities also inevitably provides terrorists with a greater number of targets, the research group argues. "Many believe that ... even a small risk of such an attack is not acceptable."
"The question is whether in the 21st century the security risks associated with civil nuclear power can be managed, or not? Society has to decide whether or not the risks of proliferation and nuclear terrorism in a world with many nuclear power reactors is acceptable."
smd