On its posters, IG Metall, Germany's biggest union, shows a snapshot of a blond German family, sitting around the dinner table. Their arms are folded and they look resolute: "8 percent for more fairness," reads the slogan.

But it will be a tough fight, even for IG Metall, which is no stranger to grinding wage talks and strikes.

Gesamtmetall, an employers' association, on Thursday offered a pay raise of 2.9 percent for Germany's all-important metal working and electronics sectors. The offer was slammed as "indecent" by IG Metall boss Berthold Huber in an interview published in the Friday edition of the best-selling tabloid Bild. Workers will begin "warning strikes" overnight on Saturday, he said, adding that the "real wave of strikes" would follow next week.

IG Metall's Huber argues that Germany's teetering economy would take a hit if the wage deal is too low: "The offer is irresponsible because it would choke economic growth. The conflict cannot be resolved this way -- I see no solution without work stoppages."

The wage hike of 2.9 percent for the next 14 months was tabled in the southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg. Negotiations there are being closely watched because they could serve as a guide for similar talks in other regions across Germany. Any deal struck will have a knock-on effect for industrial titans like steelmaker ThyssenKrupp, carmaker Daimler and engineering company Siemens.

Amid the global economic downturn, these are difficult times  for a country whose success hinges on the exports of consumer durables like cars and heavy machinery -- the very items that shoppers postpone buying in times of economic jitters. And the wage negotiations come as recession angst is running high -- officials recently slashed Germany's growth forecast for next year to 0.2 percent from 1.2 percent.

The government has conceded the economy may have already entered a recession. Such fears were stoked on Friday when German retail sales showed their biggest drop for nearly two years in September, falling for the third time in four months. Reflecting a gloomy outlook among businesses, a key survey showed German business expectations plunged in October to their lowest level since re-unification in 1990.

And this year, economic fortunes have deteriorated so dramatically that previous pay deals are now the stuff that workers' dreams are made of. Gone are the days when IG Metall had viewed 2008 as a "mega wage year." German industry's sudden downturn has rendered that statement obselete.

Over the past three years, deals scored by the big industrial union have steadily improved -- but commentators say they are now unlikely to match last year's deal.

But with IG Metall strikes looking inevitable, some are playing down the threat, saying many firms would welcome temporary stoppages because of a lack of orders. Already this week, carmaker Daimler announced it would stop production  at two big German plants for four weeks as demand cooled off.