With unmistakable savvy for the power of images, Pope John Paul II led his church into the media age and the third millennium. He became a global symbol of enlightenment and reconciliation. But the self-confident pope, who bravely withstood his own bodily suffering right up to the end, was clearly unable to convince a large number of Catholics.

Indeed, it wasn't just the pope's suffering that belonged to the world, but also how the church suffered under this pope -- and that will be the lasting legacy and tragedy of Karol Wojtyla.

Even as the citizens of the world held their breath as the pope desperately clung to life, discussions had already begun within the Catholic Church's inner circle about its future and whether a change of direction might be necessary when the conclave meets to select his successor in no more than 20 days. The weaker his health grew, the less will the pope had to undertake a re-positioning of the church. Those are all factors the 117 voting cardinals will have to keep in mind when they replace him.

The pope, who valued the power of public symbolism like no other church leader, paid special care in his final hours not to show any outward signs of anticipation about who his successor might be. He called all of his intimates to his death bed -- a group which may also have included the next pope. And the Apostolic Palace's newsletter seemed almost desperate in its attempts to make last week seem like business as usual, issuing routine statements with the standard formulations like "The holy father has accepted the resignation of ... The holy father has named ... The holy father has accepted..."

For dignitaries in the Vatican, however, the act of public suffering during the pope's final days gradually became somewhat uncomfortable. "It would be a shame," Cardinal Joachim Ratzinger, an intimate of the pope said, "if this was the way we remembered him. It is degrading for him." The next pope, said another, "can't overexert himself in the same way that John Paul II has." And American Cardinal James Stafford asked "whether a church leader is well advised to be shown in such a weakened condition?"

Indeed, the longing behind the Vatican's walls for a different type of church leader, one less dominate than Pope John Paul II, is clearly palpable. Most of the cardinals would rather not have another media star who travels around the world as the church's representative. Instead, they want a religious role model. In other words: the sheep want a shepherd.

These wish-list items have, in the past few months, slowly crystallized into a list of job specifications for the successor to this pope -- one who has ruled over his sheep with utmost rigidity. The next pope, people in Rome are saying, should be a man who truly lends the bishops his ear, who supports them and actively assists their congregations.

Nevertheless, the successor question remains an open one. Will it be someone who inherits John Paul II's moral legacy and moulds the future according to his sensibilities? Or will someone be selected who paves the way for wide-reaching reforms that reposition Catholicism in its positions on women in the church, laymen as priests and ecumenism?

The outcome of the vote in the Sistine Chapel depends on which of a number of diverse blocks among the cardinals is able to exert the most influence on the men from 54 countries wearing the robe of cardinal. Will the traditionalists prevail, or will it be the reformers? Will the pope come from an industrialized nation or a developing one? Will he be an Italian or will he come from another part of Europe? Or could he even be an African or Latin American?

Ratzinger and Martini: duelling factions

According to the unshakable law of the Vatican, the discussion won't be held in public. It will be directed silently by two prominent dignitaries who are valued in the church: German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger and Italian Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini.

Flocking behind the German cardinal are all of those who want to maintain the church's current course. They are protectors of the faith who don't want to see their church subordinated by the zeitgeist. Between 30 and 40 cardinals belong to this group, including Alfonso Lopez Trujillo of Colombia and Cardinal Joachim Meisner, the archbishop of Cologne. Ratzinger has obviously succeeded in bringing hardliners and moderate hardliners into his camp.

The more liberal wing of the church is clustering around Martini, the cardinal of Milan. This group includes Brazilians like Claudio Hummes and many Italians, among them Camillo Ruini and Dionigi Tettamanzi as well as Nigeria's Francis Arinze, a black cardinal. Within the church, they are considered bridge builders.

Both 78 years of age, Ratzinger and Martini, the symbol figures of the two major factions, are considered too old to be able to assume the office of pope themselves. Nevertheless, after such a long pontificate there is a growing inclination this time not to elect a cardinal as young as Karol Wojtyla was when he was chosen as pope in 1978 at 58.

The only certainy is that a hefty debate will ensue in the conclave. "When the Rhine flows into the Tiber," Vatican sources say in reference to the major rivers that flow through Germany and Italy respectively, "it will get stormy in the Sistine Chapel."

But it's not quite that simple. The Italians, currently favored by the most cardinals, have an internal handicap: They are further divided into northern and southern Italian wings. The north wants Giovanni Battista Re of Brescia as the church's new leader, while the southern Italians prefer Crescenzio Sepe of Grado, the ambitious chief organizer of the Grand Jubilee Year in 2000. Both could end up neutralizing the other.

Additionally, Pope John Paul II also sent a number of clear signals as to who he wanted to succeed him. He appointed an increasing number of traditionalists to cardinal posts and he took into account the growing proportion of Catholics in Third World countries when he made appointments to the global church's most-important bodies. The circle of men with voting rights grew more international, but it also grew more conservative.

The groups that John Paul II systematically strengthened have also deployed their lobbyists in the run-up to the selection of the next pope:

• The Prelature of the Holy Cross and Opus Dei, commonly known as Opus Dei, has access to money and power and enjoys good political connections in Italy, Spain and Latin America. Their main player in the conclave is Juan Luis Cipriani Thorne, the archbishop of Lima.



• The Focolare Movement (Work of Mary), a spiritual community with more than 4 million members, is promoted by Cardinal Miloslav Vlk of Prague.



• The worldwide Schoenstatt Movement, whose followers aim to orient their lives around strict Catholic ideals are represented by Francisco Javier Errazuriz Ossa, the archbishop of Santiago de Chile.



• The various orders of priests, especially the Jesuits, with their favored cardinal, Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires, will likewise seek to protect their interests.