Delays Expected: Deutsche Bahn Privatization Thrown into Doubt - DER SPIEGEL
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Delays Expected Deutsche Bahn Privatization Thrown into Doubt

Germany has been trying to privatize its trains for years. Now, with the IPO in sight, the country's governing coalition cannot agree on how to go forward. The whole project may be shelved.
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German trains may have a reputation for being among some of the best and most efficient in Europe, but Deutsche Bahn is proving to be less than punctual as a company. Plans for selling off the state-owned railway, which is one of Germany's last major state-owned assets, are proceeding at the speed of a ramshackle local train whose arrival time is looking increasingly uncertain.

Indeed, within the German government, doubts seem to be growing that privatization will ever take place at all.

Plans for an initial public offering (IPO) are supposed to be in the final stages, in preparation for a 2008 offering. But squabbling within Germany's unwieldy governing coalition -- which pairs the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) with the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) -- has thrown the project in doubt.

Transport Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee expressed doubts Tuesday about the planned privatization. All the facts are on the table, the SPD politician told the Berlin chamber of commerce, and the fundamental decision on the privatization will be made within the next few days. "In an extreme case this could mean that there is no partial privatization," he said, adding that it is possible the company might continue in its current form. If this happens, it will have to look elsewhere to raise much-needed capital, he said, hinting at the possibility of the state injecting more cash.

Other voices within the SPD are even more skeptical about the chances of reaching an agreement with the conservatives, also known as the Union. The Berlin daily Tagesspiegel cited a source close to the SPD as saying "The thing is probably going to be called off. We don't see the Union moving on this."

SPD transport policy spokesman Uwe Beckmeyer also demanded that the conservatives show more flexibility. "The Christian Democrats can't always be putting on the brakes," he told the Tagesspiegel.

The CDU's transport policy spokesman Dirk Fischer countered that the Christian Democrats want to continue negotiating with the SPD. He told the Berliner Zeitung that they would try hard to reach a result at the next coalition meeting about the privatization on Nov. 8, and that they hope to finally have a text for a Bundestag resolution ready by the end of the meeting. "Nobody wants to frivolously put the negotiations in danger," he told the paper. "Quality is more important than speed. There is no 'best before' date."

However Fischer also told the Tagesspiegel that he doesn't see "a way for a compromise yet." And an IPO is not the only way to raise capital, he pointed out. "If the floatation doesn't succeed, then Deutsche Bahn can still sell off 50 percent of its logistics division Schenker," he told the paper. Deutsche Bahn would retain control of the company, but it would be €3 billion better off. "Deutsche Bahn will not get any capital from the federal budget in any case," the CDU politician commented.

The sticking point is whether the privatized company should own the rail network, including tracks and stations. A total separation of the network from other assets, as has been proposed by some experts and politicians with the aim of increasing competition, has already been rejected. Tiefensee has come up with a new model whereby the government would retain the legal ownership of the network but Deutsche Bahn would be allowed to operate it and keep it on its books. Deutsche Bahn predicts thousands of job cuts under this model, however.

Deutsche Bahn CEO Hartmut Mehdorn is frustrated by the delays in the privatization plans and feels that Deutsche Bahn's current healthy figures suggest that the time is ripe for an IPO, and that delays will hurt the company. The company's credit rating has already been downgraded, raising the danger of higher interest payments.

"I don't understand these constant postponements anymore," he recently complained. "We need a decision now. Disquiet within the company is growing."

The uncertainty is certainly felt among the staff. If the government retains control of the track network, existing job guarantees will have to be re-negotiated. Rail workers went on strike in September after talks with management over revised job guarantees broke down.

The possible new delays should come as no surprise, as the privatization process has been dragging on for years. But now there is also talk within the government of a moratorium for the privatization, in which case an IPO would no longer be possible before the next general elections. Expect further delays.

dgs/afp/dpa