Western politicians are celebrating –- for now. The democratic bloc composed of four major parties won the Serbian parliamentary elections over the weekend, thanks to an unexpectedly high electoral participation of about 61 percent.

But the morning after may come soon. What looks like a clear majority on paper –- almost 150 cabinet members out of a total of 250 –- could soon encounter serious difficulties when it comes to forming a functioning coalition. The four parties still have substantial ideological differences, and each of them wants as many ministerial seats as they can get.

Plus, Serbia's current prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, isn't keen on giving up his position either. Characterized and criticized in the Western media in the past for being more of a nationalist than a democrat, his Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) only received a less-than-impressive 16.51 percent of the vote, landing it in third place. To stay in power, the DSS is compelled to form a coalition , most likely with the Democratic Party (DS) of President Boris Tadic. The DS took second place with 22.7 percent of the vote.

But there's also another possible outcome. The 62-year-old Kostunica could also cobble together a majority by teaming up with the ultra-nationalist Radical Party (SRS), which came out on top with fully 28.58 percent of the vote, and the Socialist Party of Slobodan Milosevic, which just managed to clear the 5 percent threshold necessary for parliamentary representation. Such an outcome would clearly not be to the West's liking.

Kostunica refuses to yield Kosovo

For one, it would likely make the issue of Kosovo that much more difficult to solve. Indeed, Kostunica's categorical refusal to consider an independent Kosovo aligns him quite closely with the Radical party. Shortly before the elections, the Serbian premier even wrote to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon that an Albanian state being formed on Serbian territory -– and against Serbian wishes –- is absolutely unacceptable.

President Tadic, for his part, would like to form the coalition of democratic parties favored by the international community -- a coalition that would see his party joining forces with the DSS, the G-17-Plus Party (6.83 percent) and the Liberal Party (LDP) of Cedo Jovanovic (5.3 percent). But Tadic would be unhappy were he forced to leave the position of government head to his political arch-enemy Kostunica, leaving only the position of vice premier for his DS.

Indeed, such a coalition could likely only come to fruition were Kostunica to commit to support Tadic's re-election as Serbian president. In such a scenario, the Liberals led by Ceda Jovanovic -- though part of the democratic bloc -- would hardly join such an alliance. But the Liberals are the only Serbian party to support the independence of Kosovo.

Playing for time

Should the electoral commission officially announce the official results on Tuesday, the Serbian parliament will have until Feb. 24 at the latest to constitute itself. The government would have to be formed by May 29. Given the imminent decision on the future status of Kosovo, it is likely that none of the parties will be in a rush to form the government much before then. After all, no matter what United Nations Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari proposes for Kosovo, Serbia's politicians have their hands tied. Even linguistic acrobatics such as "controlled" or "conditional" independence are unlikely to move the present administration in Belgrade, nor any possible future administration, recognize an independent Kosovo.

Moscow has promised to use its veto in the UN Security Council to block any decision unacceptable to Serbia. But Serbia has little faith in their Russian friends. Moscow, after all, cashed in much of its political capital with a series of unfulfilled promises during the Bosnian war.

The greater concern for Belgrade is that the United States and Albania could unilaterally recognize an independent and sovereign Kosovo even without a UN resolution. It's a surprising paradox, given the Serbian claims to Kosovo, that the stretch of land with its historical monasteries isn't mentioned in a €500,000 tourism ad contracted by the Serbian government and currently airing on CNN.