Seventeen degrees Celsius and rain may not exactly be sunbathing weather in San Sebastian, but the traditional Basque beach celebrated a new season on last Friday: the potential outbreak of a lasting peace.

Three hooded members of the Basque separatist group ETA announced last week that a permanent ceasefire would go into effect from March 24. Many are optimistic it will herald an end to nearly four decades of bombs and terror in the strife-torn Spanish region that has kept many tourists at bay.

Since the video was broadcast last Wednesday  by the Basque network ETB, a mood of change and hope has swept across Spain. In San Sebastian's town hall, the mayor celebrated with Cava, the Catalan champagne and rival politicians fell into each other's arms in front of TV cameras. Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in far-away Madrid appeared ready to seize the moment: "Now all political forces need to work together for peace."

The last few years have been good ones for efforts in Europe to stop domestic terrorist groups. The Irish Republican Army (IRA) promised to give up its violent campaign last July and now ETA could follow suit. Ever since the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 and subsequent bombings in London and Madrid by Islamic extremists, the secession struggles in Spain and Northern Ireland have looked more and more out of place.

But is ETA serious? A long-lasting peace with violent separatists would be a huge success for Spain's socialist leadership. The terrorists have lain down their arms ten times in the past, most recently for 14 months in November 1999, while Zapatero's conservative predecessor José María Aznar was still in office. But now the hope is higher than ever that "the beginning of the end of ETA" that the current premier has prophesied is at hand.

Last May, Zapatero won permission from parliament to negotiate with ETA as long as there were "unequivocal signs" that the group wanted to give up all forms of violence. The video last Wednesday is a first sign. The hooded ETA members promised more than the usual "open-ended" ceasefire, rescindable any time -- they borrowed the word "permanent" from the IRA, which announced a crucial shift in tone.

IRA serves as model

The IRA's path to peace is likely to be a model for the Basques and Spain. Advisors from Sinn Fein, the IRA's political wing, have reportedly talked strategy with ETA for months and convinced the Basque separatists that they should confine their struggle to politics. Like the IRA, ETA has suffered huge losses in popular support and ideological persuasion recently. The Basque underground seems to have run out of strength. Nearly a thousand members have been arrested over the last seven years, including their most experienced leaders.

And now -- especially since the Islamic terrorist strikes on trains in Madrid in 2004, which then-premier Aznar first blamed on ETA -- even Basque radicals are renouncing backing for further violence. After their political wing, Batasuna, was banned in 2002, the terrorists suddenly ran into problems securing funding as well.

The peace plan approved by the Spanish parliament calls for verification that ETA members are serious about renouncing violence. This process should take several months; political talks on the fate of the Basque country will take place only afterwards. But negotiators in the meantime will need to hammer out technical details of disarmament as well as prison terms for convicted terrorists.

Conservative opposition leader Mariano Rajoy is having difficulty not backing the government's new road map. According to opinion polls, 86 percent of the Spanish public wants his Popular Party to support Zapatero. But Rajoy is still skeptical: He's demanded there should be no "political price" paid for peace.

An initiative by the premier of the Basque region, Juan José Ibarretxe, also might fail. He's called for a meeting of all political parties next autumn to discuss the degree of autonomy in the region. But Zapatero has already dangled the prospect of greater independence for Spanish Basques on the model of Catalonia -- a distinct region around Barcelona recognized as a "nation" within Spain.

ETA formed in 1959 under Franco's dictatorship. It called for the foundation of an independent Basque nation that would include the Spanish province of Navarre and some French Basque areas. ETA Sympathizers hope to take part in elections in the Basque region and Navarre next year. But to participate, Basque separatist leaders would need a legal political party. A spokesman for the banned Batasuna, Arnaldo Otegi, has offered more than once in the past year to act as mediator. He and his friends also prepared the ground for the current ceasefire in secret talks with Basque socialists, most recently in Oslo and Geneva.