German Elections: President Could Sway Chancellor Decision - DER SPIEGEL
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German Elections President Could Sway Chancellor Decision

Under Germany's constitution, the federal president has the right to push forward a chancellor candidate in parliament. Generally, the president follows the advice of the parties negotiating a coalition government. But if all else fails, he could forward the strongest candidate or even dissolve parliament and call for new elections.
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Remember Horst Köhler? The German president was responsible earlier this year for determining the legality of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's confidence vote -- the motion that paved the way for Sunday's snap elections. As it turns out, the generally symbolic German head of state is waiting in the wings again and could play a pivotal role in determining who becomes the country's next chancellor.

Here's the situation: Both incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his challenger, Angela Merkel of the conservative opposition Christian Democrats, are claiming to have a mandate to build the country's next government. Merkel says she wants to fulfil that mandate despite "difficult conditions." And on Sunday night, Schröder told cheering Social Democratic Party supporters that he would take care that during the next four years, there would again be a stable government under his leadership.

Under German law, this political tug o' war can continue for a month without either candidate having to concede defeat. That may not be good for democracy, good will or the political process, but it is legal. The clock will stop on Oct. 18 -- the date when, according to Article 39 of Germany's constitution, Schröder's term as chancellor officially ends. Under the best-case scenario, one of the candidates will be able to knit together a coalition government by then. Otherwise, this sideshow act could become a full-fledged political circus.

At that point, parliament, the Bundestag, is required to hold its constitutive meeting -- where it elects a new parliamentary president, his deputy and secretary. In addition, all the parliamentary organs and committees must also be formed.

At the president's discretion

This will be the first of a series of meetings, and traditionally, the chancellor has been elected at the third one. Legally, Germany's federal president, Horst Köhler, has the right to make the first recommendation for chancellor. He chooses that person based on whether he is convinced that the candidate enjoys the support of a majority of the members of parliament. The president is technically free to choose whomever he wishes, but the decision has always been made based on coalition negotiations that have been held during the days preceding his decision. The president also has the right to meet with parties to determine what coalition constellation could provide the most-stable government. Indeed, many legal experts are already asking the president to intervene given the expected difficulties in putting together a working government.

So far, none of Köhler's predecessors have ever attempted to use their office to influence the selection of the chancellor. Still, German law does allow the president to be the middle-man in the chancellor-selection process. But the court's guidelines state that a president should only intervene if there are major problems in putting together a sustainable majority government and the country is faced with a crisis.

Under the constitution, the president has no time limit for making his nomination. And as long as no successor has been elected, the current chancellor would continue to hold his office and conduct the chancellor's business at the request of the president of parliament. This scenario, could obviously give Schröder the opportunity to make his mark as a crisis manager.

To elect a chancellor, the Bundestag doesn't necessarily even have to have an absolute majority. If, after two weeks and two votes, parliament is unable to select a chancellor, the constitution then permits the decision to be made with a simple majority vote. At this, point, too, the president still has a say. As an emergency brake, the constitution permits him to dissolve parliament and call for new elections if he doesn't believe the chancellor who has been selected by the Bundestag has the support needed to effectively govern.

However, the two constitutional paragraphs written to deal with these scenarios have never been used before in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. Indeed, in Germany's postwar history, it has only come close to relying on these laws on three occasions. Former chancellors Helmut Schmidt and Helmut Kohl only won the absolute majority by a single vote in 1976 and 1994 respectively. And Willy Brandt was elected back in 1969 with only two votes.

In the current election, if all of the legal scenarios available in the constitution are played out, the political power vacuum in Berlin could last months.

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