German Elections Will Germany's Turks Pick the Next Chancellor?
This week, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder paid a visit to the editorial offices and printing plant of the Dogan Media Group, the German arm of Turkey's largest media conglomerate. That might not sound like an obvious place to give a stump speech, but in his efforts to court the country's more than half-million Turkish-German voters, Schröder's pitstop in Mörfelden-Walldorf near Frankfurt on Tuesday was essential.
Schröder met with workers and editors and also gave exclusive interviews to journalists at media mogul Aydin Dogan's flagship publications, Hürriyet and Milliyet -- Turkey's two most widely circulated newspapers. Both also have hundreds of thousands of readers in Germany; the news printed in Mörfelden-Walldorf has an important impact on Turkish-Germans.
The "Media Chancellor" Schröder also gave a speech to the company's printing plant workers that was broadcast live by CNN's Turkish-language satellite news channel, also controlled by Dogan. He fed them exactly what they wanted hear -- reiterating his staunch support for eventual Turkish membership in the European Union.
"Turkey has fulfilled the accession requirements for European Union membership," Schröder said, "and I don't just say that on behalf of the Germans, but rather all the governments of Europe." Dogan was the first to applaud. "The negotiations will be long and difficult," Schröder continued, "but in the end they will be successful."
It was one of Schröder's easier campaign stops. After all, his challenger, Angela Merkel of the Christian Democrats (CDU), in contrast, has alienated Turkish voters with her aggressive opposition to EU membership for Ankara.
Turkish voters slowly wielding power
Schröder also had an impressive list of statistics to point at. Turkish businesses are an increasingly important player in the German market. Dogan's conglomerate alone, he noted, has invested 37 million in Germany and all together, Turkish companies have a turnover of 29 billion here. They have created 300,000 jobs in a country where unemployment has become chronic.
But the most telling statistic is the growth in the number of Turkish voters in Germany. Slowly they are emerging as a powerful minority voting bloc. Since 1972, 666,000 of the former "guest workers" who came to help rebuild Germany during the economic miracle that followed World War II have become naturalized citizens. And that number has surged in recent years under a new citizenship law that permits Turks born in Germany to apply for citizenship when they turn 18. By most estimates, more than half-million Turkish-Germans will be eligible to vote in Sunday's election -- a crucial voting block in an election in which 30 percent of Germans remain undecided. In its above-the-fold headline on Wednesday, the mass-circulation Bild newspaper asked: "Will the Turks Determine the Election?"
In editorials, Turkish-language newspapers here have recently been mobilizing Turkish-German voters to go to the polls. And despite its official neutrality, even Hürriyet has helped set the tone, at least indirectly. On Tuesday, the paper's leading story noted that, according to the latest poll data, 77 percent of Turkish voters plan to vote for the Social Democrats, followed by 9.2 percent for the Greens and 7.8 percent for the Left Alliance. A meager 4.8 percent said they would cast votes for the conservative CDU and even fewer, 1.2 percent, for the neo-liberal Free Democratic Party.
But relations between the government and Germany's Turkish minority haven't always been this harmonious during the past seven years of Schröder leadership. And for some, voting for the SPD is tantamount to choosing the lesser of two evils.
A new dimension
Gürsel Köksal, editor of Milliyet, warned the SPD has lost a number of Turkish voters to the newly formed and immigrant-friendly Left Party, a group born out of the marriage of former East German communists and Oskar Lafontaine, the ex-chief of the Social Democrats. And within Germany's largest immigrant population, tremendous resentment sprouted when the government refused to permit double citizenship for Turks who seek to become naturalized German citizens. There's also the economic factor: Germany's doldrums have had a disproportionate effect on Turkish residents. The overall unemployment rate in Germany hovers at 12 percent of the general community, but unemployment rate among people of Turkish origin is -- at 27 percent -- more than twice that.
Despite the high percentage of voters the Social Democrats are expected to receive, Schröder's visit is still of special importance. "A new dimension is beginning in which the Turks are taken seriously by German society," said Köksal.
This all leaves Schröder's opposition, the conservative CDU -- who have long harbored anti-immigration sentiment and, in many cases, continue to do so today -- with a lot of catching up to do. Both the Social Democrats and their junior coalition partner, the Greens, have at least one Turkish-German representing their party in the federal parliament. The CDU, meanwhile, has none -- and the only Turk with any shot at getting into the Bundestag is far down on the party's election candidate list.
Indeed, Merkel's party has done little to court Turkish voters, a fact likely attributed to fears of a backlash from conservative wings within the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, where "Heidi" is the ideal and Hürriyet unthinkable. Merkel has made visits to Turkey as part of her efforts to show her foreign policy chops. And during these visits, she has presented a friendly face and offered toned-down rhetoric, but she hasn't made any serious effort to court Turkish voters or say how she might address the issues the immigrants face in Germany.
Is the EU card all played out?
She has also been outspokenly opposed to Turkish membership in the European Union. Last month sent a letter to 11 European leaders saying it would "place too heavy a political, economic and social burden on the EU and threaten European integration." As she has done several times this year, Merkel called for a "privileged partnership" for Ankara rather than full-fledged EU member status. It's a call that has been flatly rejected by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Many in the SPD had hoped that this single issue would shore up their lead among Turkish Germans.
But Dirk Halm of the Center for Turkish Studies in the western German city of Essen said the issue has lost steam recently. The Turkish public, he said, has become sceptical of its chances of becoming a member and that view has also been adopted by many in the Turkish immigrant community here in Germany. And that could soften the Turkish community's response if Merkel does become chancellor.
Emine Demirbüken-Wegner -- a Turkish-German member of the CDU national committee -- argues that Merkel's party could benefit Germany's Turks. She argues that the problems faced by Turkish Germans are the same as those faced by all Germans -- high unemployment, poor education and equal opportunity. And her party, she said, has more competent policies in each of these areas. Roughly translated: A rising tide lifts all boats.
Still, the platitudes coming from members of both parties are unlikely to steer the most ambivalent Turkish-German voters. Take Ali Dalli, 56, who arrived thirty years after arriving in Berlin to work in a factory. He's now unemployed, on the dole, and has few prospects. Dalli said he didn't care about the election because he felt neither party could improve his situation.
Sitting and drinking tea with unemployed friends on an outdoor picnic table, Dalli complained that his situation as a foreigner in Germany is worse today than when he immigrated. Not because of discrimination, but because of the lack of work. This, more than anything, he said, would inform his vote if he goes to the polls this weekend. Despite the CDU's opposition to issues important to him, such as dual nationality, he said he would consider voting for them if he could be convinced they would help the economy.
However, echoing the concerns of other apathetic Turkish voters, he said he feared that the social support he does get from the state as an unemployed immigrant would be reduced under CDU leadership.