Not a single election in recent memory has been as complicated and muddled with uncertainties as this Sunday's poll in Iraq, the first democratic election in decades and the first serious transition of power from the United States occupiers to a freely-elected government. But the vote is plagued with problems running the gamut from a completely unstable security situation with almost daily terrorist attacks aimed at scaring away potential voters to Muslim ethnic and religious rivalries that could threaten to spiral the country into a civil war. In Friday's editorials, Germany's biggest papers look to the election with as much uncertainty as the Iraqis themselves.

The Financial Times Deutschland notes that for the first time in years, the Shiite Muslims are likely to gain power in Iraq, with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's party expected to garner 30 to 40 percent of the vote. If interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite, wins, it could mean that the Shiites could theoretically govern the country on their own. Under the rule of ex-dictator Saddam Hussein, the paper notes, he had a few token Shiites in his government, but otherwise he carried out the interests of the country's Sunni minority. "After the elections, the reverse could happen with a democratically legitimated Schiite government," it writes. But the Shiite leaders would be well advised to quickly bring the Sunnis into the political process even if they're not yet ready to forgive them for years of oppression. "At the moment, the danger of civil war is bigger than it has been at any time since Saddam's fall," it adds. Almost all of the resistance and terrorism in Iraq are stemming from radical groups in the Sunni Triangle "and if this part of the population is marginalized, Iraq will never have peace."

The center-left Sueddeutsche Zeitung in Munich gives George W. Bush an attitude check for his nonchalant approach to the mounting death toll of American GIs in Iraq. "As happens so often in this war, news of disaster comes from Iraq and Bush acts as if nothing important has happened," the paper writes. But 31 Americans died on Wednesday, more than on any other day in the war. At his press conference, it notes, Bush just wanted to continue pushing the themes of his inaugural speech, talking about the upcoming elections and progress in his battle to bring freedom to the world. "Bush can't admit anything negative," the paper complains. Nevertheless, his legacy will be measured on his success or failure in Iraq. But Bush can sit easy for the next two years," he'll be able to govern freely until the Congressional elections have passed and the discussion over his successor begins. "Only then will the full effect of the negative headlines from Iraq have their full effect."

The business daily Handelsblatt writes that Bush sees the Iraqi elections as the first success of his policy of exporting democracy to the Middle East. Bush has also made clear that he will continue to pursue this policy during his second term. But not so fast, Dubya. "Even if the Iraqi elections go well, the success of this ambitious mission is anything but certain," the paper writes. "To the contrary: The chances are actually bad." The editorial then points to the former Yugoslavia -- where, after former dictator Tito's death, the west tried to stop the genocide there through military intervention. It worked and democratic institutions were installed, but 10 years on, the peacekeepers are still there keeping the different ethnic groups from each others' throats. And in Afghanistan, free elections have been held, but its military troops who are preserving the fragile peace, and they will have to remain for the foreseeable future. "In Iraq, the elections won't lead to a faster stabilization or contribute to an end to the terrorism," it concludes. "The Americans know that and they're preparing for their troops to be stationed there for a long time. The path to a true civil society will be a long one."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung looks at the elections with mixed feelings. It may be positive that a free election is taking place, but the conditions surrounding it are regrettable. "In large parts of the country, people will only be able to vote under massive security measures," it writes. "That will scare scores of voters away, and not only the Sunnis, who are viewing the elections skeptically and have been speaking of a boycott for weeks." The paper also notes the bitter fight for power and influence in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk. The Kurds want the oil-rich city to become a fourth province in their region, but the city is home to many Arabs who are resisting the move. To assuage the Kurds, Iraqi officials have said they will allow them to vote in regional elections, which could lead to the Kurds getting the most power in the regional council. The decision, the paper notes, came after threats from the Kurds threatened the cohesion of the entire country. Iraq, the editorialists write, proverbially scratching their heads, "still has to learn how to vote."