This was the election outcome no one expected. Not the CDU's politicians, not the pollsters and not the journalists. At shortly before 6 p.m. local time, the representatives of the various media got together on the second floor of CDU headquarters in Berlin's Adenauer building.

Here, the party set up a buffet for guests in one of its conference rooms, but by early evening, most had lost their appetites. Already, everyone was predicting that the black and yellow (CDU and the liberal Free Democratic Party, or FDP) coalition would fail to capture a majority. Some were already predicting that the CDU would only garner 35 percent of the vote. "If that happens," said a journalist for a daily newspaper, "both we and the pollsters might as well call it a day." A fellow journalist suggested that everyone take off on a six-week vacation and "just get the DPA (German Press Agency) printouts." Everyone was stunned by this election campaign, which ended up producing the most unexpected of results.

On the evening of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's television debate with CDU challenger Angela Merkel, most opinion-makers in Berlin were predicting a win for Merkel, despite the fact that opinion polls insisted that Schröder had won the debate. By 6 p.m., the assembled journalists and party luminaries at Berlin's Adenauer building had seen the latest predictions on TV, predictions that turned German conservative politicians' worlds upside down: the black and yellow (CDU-FDP) coalition was a no-go. A few young women in the lobby shrieked in horror when the statistics appeared on TV screens, but everyone else was silent: only 35.5 percent for the conservative CDU. A few guests became optimistic and clapped when the screen shows the FDP capturing more than 10 percent of the vote.

But then the mood shifted again. This would be no victory celebration. A short time later, Dieter Althaus, governor of the eastern state of Thuringia and one of Merkel's strongest supporters, slipped up and, while the cameras were running, said it's "still too early" to talk about the future of Angela Merkel, the CDU's candidate for chancellor.

As the evening dragged on, it became more and more apparent what actually happened. In the end, it all came down to one question: How much longer will party members' allegiance to Merkel last? At 6:33 p.m., the sound was shut off on the screen at CDU headquarters, just when Franz Müntefering, head of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), began to speak at SPD headquarters in the Willy Brandt building. Exactly three minutes later, Edmund Stoiber, head of the Christian Social Union (CSU, the CDU's sister party in Bavaria), Angela Merkel and CDU General Secretary Volker Kauder took the stage. The crowd applauded and did what an audience is supposed to do at such events. The candidate smiled and looked astonishingly relaxed given that this was one of the bitterest moments of her career. Angela Merkel has captured more than three percent fewer votes than Stoiber did in the 2002 election -- the CDU/CSU's worst performance since 1949.

Merkel said: "Red-green (the SPD and Green Party coalition) has been voted out of office in Germany," and that is "good news." The election is over, she said, and now the task at hand is to "form a strong government for Germans." She added, "we clearly have the mandate to do just that."

Stoiber was the next speaker. He moved to the center of the stage, switching places with Merkel, who moved to the right. The head of the CSU said the main issue now is to address the problems that have been swept under the rug. Stoiber couldn't resist bragging about his party's "above-average results" on this election day. At this point, the CSU was still polling above 50 percent, although it ended up slipping below that mark about three hours later.

Stoiber also said something that sounds as though he were distancing himself from Merkel. The problem is that with Stoiber, no one knows if this is what he actually means or if he just got his words mixed up. He said his party will talk to everyone except the Left Party, "and then we'll see if we can put together a strong government under Ms. Merkel." But that's precisely the issue -- will Merkel even manage to scrape together a majority?

A self-confident Chancellor Schröder

On this evening, it wasn't the challenger who was behaving as if she had won the election. A short time after the results were announced, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, speaking at SPD headquarters, exuded the kind of self-confidence one would expect from someone who had won the election hands-down. It's at this moment that he demonstrates, once again, his greatest talent: the talent to be a player, a player who's willing to push his hand to the limit. The few Merkel supporters still watching over at CDU headquarters registered his performance with a curious blend of astonishment and respect. Only days before the election, many a CDU/CSU politician could have been heard expressing roughly the same sentiment: "Where on earth does Schröder get the confidence that he can still make it?"

Schröder seemed completely in his element on Sunday evening, coming across like a magician who believes that everything is within in his power. He was relaxed and in good spirits when he claimed that the only possible coalition will be one under his leadership as chancellor. Merkel, on the other hand, seemed entirely out of place in a political arena dominated by men -- Stoiber, FDP leader Guido Westerwelle, Green Party heavyweight Joschka Fischer, Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) leader Lothar Bisky and Schröder. When the others spoke, the camera frequently zoomed in on Merkel's face. It was the face of a candidate whose thoughts seem to be elsewhere. Only when was her turn to respond to Schröder did she suddenly seem to be present again, smiling and reminding Schröder that he hasn't won the election. After they've had a few days to think about it, she said, "reality will also set in among the Social Democrats." Schröder leans back in his chair, as if to say: Let's just wait and see.

On an evening that ended with significant losses for the CDU/CSU, there was perhaps one consolation for Merkel: Her opponents and competitors at the state level, who issued a statement of support just a few days earlier, didn't fare much better. Perhaps it was because their own election results were no less disastrous than hers that no one within the party leadership seems willing to openly turn on Merkel. The CDU/CSU only managed to capture a majority in four states -- Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz (with its SPD/FDP coalition government) and Saxony. In every other state, the SPD has either emerged victorious or, as in Hessen, is open to forming coalitions, so that Roland Koch, the governor of Hessen and a long-time Merkel rival, will not be able to emerge from this election as an absolute winner. Koch even came across as meek when interviewed on television, saying that this was a joint election campaign, and that it would be "foolish" to turn it into a clash of personalities. But the question is, will it help Merkel that politicians in other CDU/CSU-governed states fared as badly as she did? After all, the results of this election show that the CDU/CSU won't capture a majority under her leadership.