Letter From Berlin: Merkel's Authority under Fire - DER SPIEGEL
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Letter From Berlin Merkel's Authority under Fire

Chancellor Angela Merkel's authority within her conservative ranks is slipping away just as Germany is experiencing its worst economic crisis since the war. The center-left Social Democrats are already preparing their campaign against a chancellor increasingly seen as weak.
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There are moments when nothing protects against humiliation, not even power. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was looking forward to a pleasant evening last Wednesday. She had traveled to the Bavarian city of Nuremberg to attend the opening ceremony of the International Toy Fair. The Nuremberg Symphony had provided the music, and the event organizers had expected the chancellor to be their most prominent guest. But her enjoyment was suddenly cut short when Horst Seehofer stepped onto the stage.

The broad grin on his face revealed his thrill of anticipation over the jokes he was about to make at Merkel's expense. He began by telling the audience about the large model railroad in his basement, a miniature replica of the world. "I'm looking for a spot for the chancellor at the moment," he said, inviting everyone in the room to imagine him as the train's engineer, the man responsible for making sure the trains are running, while little Angela stands on the platform, looking forlorn.

The audience laughed enthusiastically.

Then Seehofer upped the ante, saying that playing with his model railroad was an incredibly relaxing activity for him. "That's when I recover from all the pressure the great chancellor puts on the little CSU."

More raucous laughter. Of course, no one believed that this incredibly good-humored and self-confident man, Seehofer, would allow anyone to put pressure on him, especially not the woman sitting in the room, condemned to tolerate being the butt of his jokes.

Chipping Away at Foundations

It isn't difficult to make fun of the chancellor these days, because her authority has been damaged. Almost everyone in Berlin is trying to chisel away at the foundations of her power and secure influence for himself. The chaotic way  in which Economy Minister Michael Glos resigned at the weekend -- with a letter to his party leader Seehofer rather than to Merkel -- have fuelled doubts about Merkel's authority within her conservative camp.

On the one hand, there is the conservative parliamentary group made up of Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, which is growing increasingly nervous and frustrated, because it's tired of simply rubberstamping all the compromises Merkel expects it to agree to.

The conservative members of parliament can see voters switching to the liberal, pro-business Free Democratic Party each day. "I could have killed him," one senior conservative said when the CDU's general secretary, Ronald Pofalla, tried to paint the conservatives' meager election results in the state of Hesse last month as a triumph.

Even the CDU state governors are distancing themselves from the chancellor. While they're not confident enough to engage in open rebellion, they have chosen a strategy that amounts to a tacit dismantling of Merkel. When they meet with the chancellor, they raise half-hearted objections at best. But the minute they return to their state chancelleries they don't shy away from unrestrained criticism.

Trouble Over Pope Criticism

As if Merkel didn't have enough problems already, she is now faced with a bizarre debate over the question of whether she, as chair of the CDU, has the authority to reprimand the pope.

Last Tuesday, Merkel spoke out courageously and candidly on the pontiff's questionable treatment of an avowed Holocaust denier. But instead of being proud of the clear words spoken by their leader, many conservatives preferred to worry about what the arch-Catholics in their own constituencies might think.

In addition, the center-left Social Democrats who share power with Merkel's conservatives are convinced they've finally found a promising theme for their campaign ahead of the September general election: Merkel, the chancellor out of her league.

There was not a single day last week when the Social Democrats did not publicly question her ability to assert herself. SPD parliamentary group leader Peter Struck called it a "lack of willingness to lead," while SPD chancellor candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier said: "The chancellor can be happy that she can depend on the SPD's ideas."

Nothing could be more welcome for the Social Democrats at the moment than a chancellor without a compass, a head of government without authority and a party leader who lacks the support of her own people.

Indeed, SPD officials could not be more pleased over an egoist like Seehofer constantly seeking to distinguish himself at Merkel's expense.

The more tarnished Merkel seems, the lower her poll ratings will be. So far the strategy seems to be working. Support for the conservatives (CDU and CSU combined) dropped to just 34 percent in recent polls. But SPD officials, seemingly obsessed with their adversary's problems, are quick to ignore the fact that their own party no longer enjoys much of a lead over the FDP.

SPD Hoping for Boost

The greater the conservative decline in opinion polls, the more trouble Merkel faces within her camp. The SPD leadership is already thrilled about the "hydraulic system" that it believes could finally lift the party out of its opinion poll doldrums.

Of course, there is plenty of calculated optimism behind this, especially given how far away the Social Democrats are from an election victory in September. Nevertheless, they appear to have found the right trigger to aggravate the CDU/CSU, at least for the time being.

"The speed at which Merkel is changing her basic positions is truly amazing," says SPD deputy leader Andrea Nahles.

It isn't as though the CDU is fundamentally opposed to sudden changes in policy -- even large parties can be flexible in that respect. But Merkel's problem is that she doesn't explain her flip-flopping.

Now fellow conservatives are criticizing her for changing her mind on economic policy. At first she vehemently supported a debt-free government budget, but then gave her blessing to a huge economic stimulus program. The fact that this is a necessary reaction to a historically unprecedented crisis is something her critics conveniently overlook.

Other accusations, on the other hand, are justified. For instance, until recently Merkel was intent on adding a green coat of paint to her chancellorship. But last week, without so much as shedding a tear, she buried the proposed Environmental Code, a project that she herself had launched as environment minister under former Chancellor Helmut Kohl, and which was aimed at harmonizing environmental legislation in Germany.

She buried it because she was anxious to avoid stirring up trouble with CSU leader Seehofer, who had sabotaged the code from the start with cheap polemics. But Merkel was also unable to get past the resistance to the code from members of her own party.

When the cabinet met last Wednesday, Merkel simply glossed over the environment, as if nothing had happened. At the end of the meeting, she admitted, with satisfaction: "It's a good thing that no one asked me about the Environmental Code. Now we can all go home early."

Accusations of Flip-Flopping

As a result of her vacillation, the conservatives are even losing ground on issues that until recently were part of its core values -- tax policy, for example.

At first Merkel was strongly opposed to the CSU's demands for tax cuts. But Seehofer needled the chancellor until she finally gave in. Significant power is vested in the office of chancellor. But in the end, leadership can only succeed if it is backed by conviction. This is a problem for Merkel because no one can say what exactly her convictions are.

This vacuum is now being filled by people whose convictions aren't any deeper, but who don't shy away from constantly churning out arbitrary proposals. Seehofer, for example, has no shortage of ideas to fill the remaining months between now and the Sept. 27 general election.

Under one of the CSU leader's proposals, referendums should be held on important questions of European policy, a position that contradicts everything the CDU has ever stood for. Seehofer is also picking quarrels with Merkel on healthcare policy. He asked Markus Söder, the Bavarian regional health minister, to develop a counterproposal to the Health Fund, a key element of Merkel's health reform. The concept is to be approved by the CSU leadership in early April. "The CDU doesn't like it, of course," says Söder cheerfully.

Seehofer made his low opinion of Merkel's tactical skills clear to her in a one-on-one meeting last Wednesday. Before the meeting, Merkel had called upon the pope to clearly distance himself from Holocaust denier Richard Williamson. Seehofer told the chancellor that such statements would be the source of "irritation."

Seventy-seven percent of CSU members are Catholic, and Seehofer is a great populist more than anything else. He knows how unpopular scolding the pope, who comes from the town of Marktl am Inn in Upper Bavaria, is among his conservative voters.

His stance is reinforced by the outrage that Merkel's words triggered in the CSU, to the astonishment of the rest of the country. Former party chairman Edmund Stoiber called Seehofer several times. Alois Glück, the former speaker of the Bavarian state parliament, said it was "not the responsibility of elected officials to comment on the pope."

Looming Election Campaigns

There are fundamental issues that divide Seehofer and Merkel. The Bavarian politician, for example, would have no problem launching the election campaign right now.

When Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel of the SPD allowed the negotiations over the Environmental Code to fail, he seized on the move to declare to a small group of listeners. "As far as I'm concerned, this is more or less the end of the grand coalition."

He knows that his supporters have long grown tired of making compromises with the SPD. Merkel has completely different plans. She wants to govern as quietly as possible, for as long as possible, and then begin a short but energetic election campaign in August.

She likes to portray herself as a presidential chancellor, as someone who is above petty party squabbling. A lengthy campaign could only be detrimental to her.

It is these differences within the conservative camp that are starting to reinvigorate the SPD, which has yet to recover from a sharp slump in opinion poll ratings over the last year. Objectively speaking, the center-left party is in a far worse starting position than the conservatives.

SPD Weak in Polls but Well Organized

But the SPD's great strength has always been and still is organization. SPD leader Franz Müntefering and his party manager Kajo Wasserhövel have already planned out the campaign down to the last detail. According to the internal script at party headquarters, the year has been divided into four phases. The plan is outlined in a document with the lackluster title Campaign 09.

Phase One, titled "Time to Get Going -- For Our Country," has already begun and will last until the end of April. In this phase, SPD officials intend to pursue something they call "Light Campaigning." Officially, they insist that the SPD is continuing to govern in the interest of the country. At the same time, the

The SPD is already trying to establish as much distance as possible between itself and Merkel and her conservatives. The Social Democrats are constantly looking for ways to make the conservatives look like fools. The uproar over the Environmental Code is seen as a successful overture.

More conflicts are expected to follow soon, especially on the issue of executive pay. The SPD wants to campaign for rules that would impose clear sanctions on poorly performing executives. One idea is to require top executives to tie more of their personal assets to the success of their company.

The European parliamentary election campaign will ring in Phase Two. The actual campaign for election to the German parliament, the Bundestag, or Phase Three, begins after the European election on June 7. According to the SPD campaign plan, the working titles of that phase are "Social Rules for the Market Economy" and "Frank Steinmeier: His Ideas. His Dream." The goal of this phase will be to present chancellor candidate Steinmeier and the SPD's key leaders as a clear alternative to the conservative team.

No CDU Campaign Plan Yet

In addition to Steinmeier, two senior SPD officials will play a decisive role in the campaign: Müntefering and Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück. The party is also considering adding Nahles or Berlin Mayor Klaus Wowereit to the team. The SPD then plans to launch Phase Four, the hot campaign phase, in mid-August. The working title of that phase is: "Time for Decisions. Frank Steinmeier Must Become Chancellor." Of course, no one can deny the Social Democrats the right to make this assertion.

The conserviatives still lack a comparable concept. Merkel is still pondering her campaign strategy. It is already clear that tax reform will be a major issue, and a joint CDU and CSU program is expected to be on the table by Easter. The only problem is that the two parties are at loggerheads over this issue. Seehofer wants the government to clearly inform citizens as to when they can expect to see more cash in their wallets. Merkel, for her part, prefers not to get into the details.

The CSU leader is relatively confident that he will prevail. At the end of his speech at the toy convention, Seehofer briefly addressed national politics in Berlin, only to end on a patronizing note, when he said that the chancellor would, of course, give the audience a lecture on the subject. "You can assume," Seehofer said confidently, "that everything happens with the support of the CSU."

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan