The World from Berlin Bavarian Power Shift
Franz Josef Strauss, the Don of the conservative Christian Social Union, once said: "We don't need any opposition, we're already democrats." The larger-than-life Bavarian premier, who ruled the CSU from 1961 until his death in 1988, had a sense of humor to be sure. But if the past few months of tumult inside the party is anything to go by, Strauss was likely dead serious.
With Strauss protégé and long-time Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber officially handing in his resignation on Sunday, the party gathered in the southern German state this weekend to choose his successor, both as party head and Bavarian premier. The second part proved simple: As pre-programmed this spring, Günther Beckstein was elected to take over the reins of Bavarian government with 96.6 percent of the vote.
But choosing a party leader has had the CSU tied in knots all year. Which should surprise no one. After all, CSU members dont have much experience with electing a new head -- they haven't had more than one candidate to choose from since 1955.
The result was a highly public campaign which saw party rebel Gabriele Pauli -- who triggered the fall of Stoiber last winter -- successfully grabbing for headlines in her bid for the leadership and challenger Horst Seehofer -- hobbled by an ugly extra-marital affair scandal -- unsuccessfully trying to avoid them. In the end, though, it was Stoiber's hand-picked candidate Erwin Huber who garnered the most votes, becoming party leader with 58.2 percent of the vote.
Party members throughout the weekend tried to smooth the rough waters by arguing that with Beckstein and Huber at the helm, Stoiber's course is safe -- though given the attacks endured by Stoiber last winter, it's unclear that is what the party wants. Pauli, for her part, did her best to highlight divisions within the CSU.
The rest of the country is watching closely. Despite being a regional party, the CSU vote is important for German politics and Merkel's Christian Democrats are allied closely with the CSU and her power depends on a secure Bavarian flank. Which is why on Monday German commentators are looking southward and scratching their heads at what they see.
Center-right daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung isn't sure that the new leadership duo has the stuff to keep the CSU relevant:
"The theory that Stoiber's autocratic leadership style left the younger CSU politicians with no air to breathe is still valid. Soiber's fall is the result of the next generation fighting for legitimacy -- and not the result of the media's love-affair with (Pauli), as entertaining as she was. Huber and Beckstein have to achieve the feat of erasing from collective memory the fact that they were vital elements of Stoiber's system."
"It isn't a secret that the success of the CSU is based on a kind of political sorcery: Its continued success at the state level is (in part) dependent on the influence it has at a federal level; and its importance at the federal level is dependent on its dominance at the state level. At the party conference this weekend, it was said yet again that the CSU isn't just a regional power rather it is an important conservative voice in Germany's political choir. In the CSU, many are concerned that Huber and Beckstein won't be successful where (predecessors) Strauss, (Theo) Waigel and Stoiber excelled: to at least create the appearance that what is said in Munich is at least as important as what is said in Berlin, Paris, Rome and London."
The conservative paper Die Welt writes:
"One has become used to seeing the CSU as a kind of curiosity: impressive, a bit bizarre, but harmless. That doesn't just have to do with Germany's chronic ignorance when it comes to the southern state of Bavaria, but also with the person of Edmund Stoiber himself. The man who just barely missed out on becoming the first German chancellor from Bavaria in 2002 didn't cut a very good figure on the national political stage after that. Especially not in 2005 when, after much hemming and hawing, he didn't take up a ministerial posting in Berlin after all. Because people in Bavaria never forgot that, it didn't help a bit that he continued to rule his state competently. Bavaria's influence on the national stage had been reduced."
"That could now change. Because the new party head Erwin Huber -- who is both pious and from a poor, working class family -- has only worked at the state level until now, he'll want to flex Bavaria's muscles at the national level. With the pair of Beckstein and Huber, Bavaria could become more Bavarian and promote its political goals more successfully than Stoiber had recently been able to."
The Financial Times Deutschland disagrees:
"Beckstein and Huber, neither of them much younger than Stoiber is, can at the most stop the CSU's slide into national-political insignificance and adapt the party to modernity . But even achieving these modest goals promises to be difficult. In order to secure the CSU's influence in Berlin, the party should have elected Federal Agriculture Minister Horst Seehofer as head of the party."
"But even more dangerous for the party than its waning influence in Berlin is its refusal to modernize itself. Instead of realizing that party rebel Gabriele Pauli pointed out significant shortfalls, she was punished. At the same time, a platform was passed that is full of all the angst that has dogged the party for decades. The over-emphasis on right-wing conservative values -- whether it's a 'German leading culture' or traditional family values -- lays bare a lack of awareness when it comes to social changes that are also enveloping Bavaria. The CSU is in danger of disconnecting itself from the realities of its voters' lives."
-- Charles Hawley, 12:15 p.m. CET