The World From Berlin: 'Gül Is a Clever Choice' - DER SPIEGEL
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The World From Berlin 'Gül Is a Clever Choice'

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has nominated his foreign minister and right-hand man Abdullah Gül to be president. German commentators hail the decision as politically astute but are not convinced that Erdogan has given up his presidential ambitions.
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Both secularists in Turkey and observers in the European Union breathed a sigh of relief Tuesday when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced he was not going to run for president but was nominating his popular foreign minister, Abdullah Gül  instead. The prospect of the pro-Islamic Erdogan being president of the officially secular republic had raised fears of a creeping Islamicization of the country, bringing supporters of secularism out onto the streets  and prompting veiled warnings from the military, the self-appointed guardians of Atatürk's secular state.

Erdogan announced Tuesday that his Justice and Development Party (AKP) has chosen Gül to succeed the current president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, whose seven-year term ends on May 16. Given the government's parliamentary majority, Gül's eventual appointment by the 550-member body is seen as little more than a formality.

The move is widely seen as yet another shrewd tactic by the politically astute Erdogan. Gül has a reputation as being liberal and level-headed and as such is a more acceptable candidate to secularists than Erdogan. He is also seen as likely to continue with Turkey's pro-European course.

Gül's nomination also means that the charismatic Erdogan is free to campaign for parliamentary elections in the fall as leader of the AKP; if he had become president, he would have had to leave his party.

However the fact the Gül effectively stood in for Erdogan as prime minister for four months after the 2002 elections has caused some to wonder if Gül is performing a similar function this time. And the fact that Gül's wife Hayrunisa wears a headscarf is likely to count against him in the secular camp.

German commentators Wednesday raised their hats to Erdogan's political cunning but remained unconvinced that he has entirely given up his dream of becoming president.

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"At the end the sense of relief was enormous. Erdogan's decision to let his foreign minister, Abdullah Gül, stand instead of him in the elections for the new Turkish president is one of the cleverest of his term in office. Political reason has triumphed over personal ambition."

"Erdogan may be Turkey's most charismatic politician, but he provokes anger and fear like nobody else -- he splits the country. ... In political terms too the decision in favor of Gül was a clever move. Gül has earned the reputation as a liberal and level-headed politician both at home and abroad. There is almost nothing that Turkey needs more than something which defuses the conflict which is currently plaguing the country."

"Some are worried that Turkey is threatened by pending Islamicization because of the AKP's abundant power. It is Erdogan's job to prove that he intends to take his commitment to a secular republic seriously in the future too. Gül is also a clever choice in this respect: No secularist would be scared of Gül -- even if his wife does wear a headscarf."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"Erdogan did not decide not to run because there were demonstrations against him, but because he wants to keep his party together. A new parliament will be elected in the fall. The AKP is depending on its charismatic founder leading them in the election campaign. As president, Erdogan would be obliged to be non-partisan and could do significantly less to help his party as a result."

"Many will be watching with suspicion to see to what degree a still strong -- perhaps even stronger -- Prime Minister Erdogan and a President Gül will help each other -- particularly as far as Islam is concerned. But Gül will be sworn in on the constitution, not the Koran -- and will have to accept it as his guideline."

The conservative Die Welt writes:

"Nobody believes that the crafty tactician Erdogan has now given up his life's dream of the prestigious presidential office. A similar scenario to that of November 2002 is conceivable, where, after the AKP's election victory, Gül occupied the position of prime minister for four months, after which the boss himself took over the business of governing. But the time is not yet right. Erdogan would still provoke too much resistance from the strictly secular elite."

"Gül is a happy choice in Europe's eyes, because the urbane and popular figure has earned respect as foreign minister. He belongs to the liberal wing of his party. With Erdogan in the background he can be relied upon to continue on a pro-European course."

The left-leaning Berliner Zeitung writes:

"Unlike Erdogan, Gül in his term as foreign minister always avoided conflict with the generals, preferring to act as a mediator in the argument over the separation of state and religion. But that doesn't mean that the establishment will simply allow Gül to be elected as Turkish president on May 17 without further ado. However, turning down the choice of Gül, who is always willing to compromise, would be difficult. The only argument against Gül is the fact that his wife wears a headscarf. If that is the only reason for turning him down, then the elite, who are constantly guarding the preservation of the secular state, will find itself more isolated than ever from the people."

The left-wing Die Tageszeitung writes, under the headline "Sancho Panza for President":

"Erdogan has proved himself to be a skilled tactician, clever enough to put his interest in holding on to political power ahead of his own vanity. However Gül is not the compromise candidate that the opposition and the secular part of Turkish society were hoping for. As foreign minister, he did indeed make a good impression, being someone who tends to mediate rather than polarize. At the same time he is regarded as a loyal follower of his boss -- he even kept the prime minister's seat warm for him while Erdogan was waiting for the right political moment to take office."

"With the nomination, the starting pistol has been fired for the parliamentary elections in November. ... Turkey has a tough election campaign ahead of it. The tension in the coming months could even turn, yet again, into political violence."

-- David Gordon Smith, 3:00 p.m. CET

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