The World from Berlin: 'Nothing Will Be Left to Chance' - DER SPIEGEL
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The World from Berlin 'Nothing Will Be Left to Chance'

Elections in Russia on Sunday are predicted to throw massive support behind President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party. The question isn't whether the party wins, but by how much. Putin already dominates his country's politics, but he seems obsessed with crushing his opponents. Why?
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Vladimir Putin has, of course, pledged to step down as president after his term ends next spring, since the Russian constitution, after all, renders him ineligible to run for office after two successive terms.

But as the leading candidate of the dominant political party, United Russia, Putin won't just vanish. Recent polls predict that his party will win two-thirds of the lower parliament, or State Duma, in general elections this Sunday -- which might give the party up to 80 percent of parliament's 450 seats. With such a strong showing, United Russia could in theory change the constitution to keep Putin in a powerful job -- whether as an old-fashioned president or prime minister, or as something new and undefined, like "national leader."

Putin views the Sunday elections as a referendum on his years in power. United Russia's final share of the Duma will suggest how strong a mandate Putin can claim from the poll. So he's been busy on the campaign trail, delivering a (repeatedly broadcast) speech that urges Russians to vote and warns against letting Russia slide back to "times of humiliation, dependence and breakup." The opposition, on the other hand, has almost no access to print or TV media, and police have found reasons to arrest rival party leaders, like former world chess champion Garry Kasparov, who recently spent five days in jail.

German commentators on Friday feel Putin has choreographed the drama of Russian politics well through this election cycle, but they don't believe he is, as former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder once put it, a "flawless democrat." In fact they worry about what the Kremlin's tight control over the election means for democracy in Russia -- if democracy, in fact, survives.

In a piece entitled "Flawless Farce," the Handelsblatt financial daily writes:

"The results (of the election) may put Putin in the position of 'national leader,' a position not provided for in the constitution. But this is voting in Absurdistan."

"Of course, you could still blame mistakes and confusion on the fact that Russia's democracy is still young -- if it weren't for the mostly brazen and massive interventions by 'the power' to hustle these elections toward the desired outcome. Nothing (i.e., voting) will be left to chance."

"Granted, Vladimir Putin is not the first person allowed to work with this kind of leverage. The internationally respected Boris Yeltsin came up with the blueprint when the Communists were crowding him a bit too much. At that time, the West took note -- but stayed silent."

"But Putin has now pushed the system to a sad new low. For Russia this means two things: First, the pretension that it numbers among the democratic nations is now fini. Second, if a popular national leader needs to take such measures, he obviously has a lot of anxiety. Which means Russia can't be as stable as it seems."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"Because the Kremlin wants to hedge its bets, it is still waging an intimidation and slander campaign against the opposition. But, of course, Putin will win and the nation will continue with determination along the path to authoritarianism. The presidential elections in March are also certain to play out in Putin's favor. No one in the West has anything against Russia slipping back into this routine. What's annoying is Moscow's tough rhetoric. It isn't just an election-time phenomenon; it's pervaded Russian politics for quite some time now. Moreover, it has only concocted its supposed humiliation in order to get some payback now."

The Financial Times Deutschland writes:

"Putin has made a tacit agreement with the majority of the population. He gives Russians the feeling that they are once again respected in the world, or at least -- owing to his martial language -- feared. And they don't dwell on the fact that an almost impermeable barrier exists between the people and 'those up there.'"

"The deal has worked so far partially as a result of the fact that high oil and gas prices have facilitated the emergence of a swelling middle class. This middle class has enough money not only to live a half-way normal life but also to deal with the ever-present, rampant corruption."

"The mystery lies in what will happen when this stream of money dries up -- or when the people terminate the agreement for some other reason ... There exists no transparent vehicle for a change in power and no institutions to monitor it -- something which Putin made sure to prevent."

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"The campaigning president is apparently beset by the worry that ... there might not be enough votes to make (the election) an impressive plebiscite. As the leading candidate for United Russia, Putin will only manage to present himself as the 'national leader' if his party gets about 70 percent of the vote. And to make sure that happens, he is now acting completely unashamed about using national TV to summon people (to vote)."

"The parliamentary vote is really just the first part of a grand plan. Despite the fact that it remains unclear who the candidates will be, there will be a new president in March. After the identity of those persons become known, however, it's fair to suspect that Putin won't give the Russians a true choice even then."

-- Josh Ward, 2:30 p.m. CET

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