The World From Berlin: Small ECB Rate Hike Would be Justified - DER SPIEGEL
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The World From Berlin Small ECB Rate Hike Would be Justified

The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point on Thursday in response to a steep rise in inflation. It has no choice, write German media commentators, because a failure to act now would hurt its inflation-fighting credentials.
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The rate of inflation in the euro zone jumped to a record four percent in June, the highest rate since common European measurements started in 1997, due to surging food and fuel prices.

The figures released on Monday have boosted expectations that the European Central Bank will hike its interest rates at its regular council meeting in Frankfurt on Thursday.

The ECB's target inflation rate is slightly below two percent. The ECB French president, Jean-Claude Trichet, never tires of stressing that the bank's principal focus is on curbing inflation and that price stability is vital for economic growth. He even took the unusual step of saying weeks ago that a rate hike was possible at this week's meeting.

However, critics warn that an interest rate rise now could hurt the European economy where growth is already slowing  in a number of large member states including France and Germany. Business sentiment has also been declining.

German media commentators agree that the ECB is almost certain to raise interest rates slightly on Thursday to protect its credibility as an inflation fighter and to signal that it will not tolerate the kind of inflation mentality that damaged European economies in the 1970s.

Business daily Handelsblatt writes:

"In the 15 countries of the euro zone the exploding price of oil has led to record inflation. Four percent, that's the highest rate of inflation since common statistics were introduced 11 years ago. Given this situation the European Central Bank has no option but to tighten the monetary reins. "

"But how big does the interest rate move have to be? The hardliners won't get their way at the next ECB meeting on Thursday. The central bankers have to take far more into account than the inflation rate. Important economies around the world are sliding into recession. And the financial crisis is far from over. That's why ECB officials have no alternative but to raise the key rate by just a quarter point to 4.25 percent."

"That doesn't need to be the end of it. But the central bank would preserve its room for manoeuvre with such a step. And that's important. It would send a signal telling the markets: We don't want to accept an excessively high rate of inflation, but we're also aware that we have to proceed carefully and take account of the economy and the financial crisis."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"The European Central Bank will have to raise its key interest rate this week. It will be forced to do so to secure medium-term price stability and to protect its reputation as a responsible central bank. There's no shortage of people warning against an interest rate hike but the arguments of the critics are unconvincing."

"The experience of the 1970s should serve as a deterrent example. The central banks then tolerated high inflation rates for fear they might otherwise cause a collapse of world growth, but they ended up failing to prevent a recession. The inflation rate must be brought down, as quickly as possible."

Conservative Die Welt writes:

"There's virtually no doubt now that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates. And the price of that will be that economic growth slows. Nevertheless, an interest rate signal is unavoidable if the central bankers want to protect their credibility. In the short term an interest rate increase will scarcely have any impact on prices, partly because a large portion of inflation is imported through high energy prices. But it's important to prevent an inflation mentality like the one that took root in the 1970s. The damage done to growth by a sustained wage-price spiral would be far worse than an economic dampener caused by a stability oriented ECB policy."

-- David Crossland, 1.45 p.m. CET

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