The World From Berlin Stimulus Package 'Won't Do Much Harm or Good'
Can the German government's stimulus plan put an end to the economic roller coaster ride?
Foto: DPAThe global downturn has hit Germany especially hard, with growth declining by 50 percent in 2008. New orders and exports have shriveled up since last spring and businesses are hesitant to invest. Germany's Federal Statistical Office is estimating that the fourth-quarter alone saw a decline in gross domestic product of 1.5 to 2 percentage points.
Strong measures were needed to address the economic freefall and, on Tuesday, Germany's governing "Grand Coalition" -- led by Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats and its junior partner, the left-leaning Social Democrats -- stepped up to the plate in order to ratify the biggest economic stimulus package seen in the country since World War II.
The largest single chunk of the stimulus package -- €17.3 billion ($22.8 billion) earmarked for investments in kindergartens, schools, universities, streets and hospitals -- will mostly trickle through the construction industry. The next biggest euro-infusions will go towards cutting the monthly contributions of individuals and companies to Germany's state-backed public health insurance system (€9 billion) and a lowering of taxes (€8.9 billion).
Combined with last year's stimulus package of €31 billion, which had been derided by critics at home and abroad as too small to have any serious effect, Germany now plans to invest a total of €80 billion in an effort to spur economic growth. The spending required for the stimulus program, however, will push Germany's budget over the 3 percent deficit limit permitted in the euro zone under the Stability and Growth Pact for countries that are part of Europe's common currency. A number of euro zone countries are also expected to exceed that limit this year.
German commentators give the stimulus package mixed reviews on Wednesday.
The business daily Handelsblatt writes:
"A better solution probably couldn't have been reached in an election year. But if you view the stimulus package from an economic standpoint, there can only be one verdict: The Grand Coalition's plan won't do much harm, but it also won't do much good. Even if you cook the books, the best sum you can achieve with the stimulus package is 1.5 percent of gross domestic product. That would be relatively good as long as everything suddenly kicks into action again during the first and second quarters of the year. But many economic measures don't take hold until the second half of the year -- or even a whole year later. If the majority of economists are actually right that we are currently in a one-time 'Keynesian situation,' then we should employ the famous helicopter method -- which is to distribute money throughout the land as fast as possible, so that it can quickly take effect. That is exactly what the coalition is not doing."
The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:
"The construction industry shouldn't celebrate too soon. It doesn't have to pay up right away but, two years from now, could well be presented with a bill. The industry has only just tapered down to normal capacity and regained its bearings after the painful hangover it suffered after its post-reunification boom. Employment in the building industry has been halved to 700,000 since 1995. A temporary flood in contracts will only mean short-term expansion in the industry. The resulting hangover will be bitter."
The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung concludes:
"One can endlessly discuss the pros and cons of the stimulus package. But no one can seriously deny that this situation is more dangerous than ever before. Three flames have combined to form a roaring fire: a normal economic decline, a financial crisis and structural weaknesses, especially in the auto industry. The state must act accordingly. If you have a look at Europe, it becomes clear that Germany, with its combined stimulus packages worth €75 billion, has lived up to its role as the EU's biggest economy, despite justified criticism -- and more quickly than one narcissistic president predicted. To express this in the vocabulary of France's Nicolas Sarkozy: France thinks, Germany acts. Acting alone won't be enough, though, because the government measures to counter the recession will leave behind ugly tracks. Still, the government is on the right path."
The business daily Financial Times Deutschland writes:
"Only one thing is missing: results. The package's many benefits, which already come too late, will neither create a fast surge in demand nor a strong psychological signal."
"The same government that has just signed the biggest stimulus package in Germany's history in order to gain the trust of its citizens and spur their propensity to spend, is itself exhibiting obvious misgivings."
"There have been none of the calls for courage when it comes to shopping and investing that could be heard in the United States after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. Instead the feat that this move could get expensive is clearly written into the faces of government leaders, who are 'cheaper than Swabian house wife (eds: a disparaging term of the alleged miserly habits of residents of the southern German)."
"But it would be even more expensive if the laboriously loosened billions of euros drained away without effect and the fall in demand were to go unchecked. That would not only result in high economic costs but also political costs, since the government would lose credibility."
"False labeling led to the demise of the first stimulus package, which was really just a smorgasbord of odds and ends. If the second, much more serious package faltered because of the coalition's fear of its own courage, it will be disastrous."