The World from Berlin 'The Inflation Monster Is Back'
Financial markets are a stressful place to be these days. On Tuesday, Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank's shares took a hit when a rumor went around that they would be posting a second-quarter loss. On Wednesday, the global bank's stock went right back up when it announced that it was actually posting a profit for the second quarter.
But even that little bit of good news wasn't enough to calm jittery German markets. With oil prices hitting a record high of $144 a barrel and food costs soaring around the world, fears of a recession and inflation have led to serious discussions about how to pull the economy out of the doldrums without causing a surge in prices.
Meanwhile, German politicians were debating Finance Minster Peer Steinbrück's pledge to reduce deficit spending instead of cutting taxes. Steinbruck is sticking to plans to balance Germany's federal budget by 2011 -- to the dismay of those who think immediate economic stimulus is the way to solve the country's economic woes.
On Thursday, German commentators looked for solutions in everything from deficit spending to inflation.
The left-leaning Die Tageszeitung took on deficit policy:
"Forty years after the beginning of Germany's rapidly rising national debt, German politicians are finally beginning to understand the lessons of economist John Maynard Keynes. Keynes recommended two policies: First, the government should be open with spending and credit to get the economy through crises. And second, it should pay back its debts when the economy is doing well."
"The second part of the Nobel Prize winner's message has been ignored since the era of Willy Brandt. There's always a reason to borrow more money. Either the crisis was so serious that there was pressure to go further into debt, or the wishes of different constituencies were impossible to ignore. In the last 40 years, a mountain of debt worth €1.6 trillion, or 60 percent of the total GDP, has built up."
"Now Germany wants to voluntarily adopt deficit policies even stricter than the EU rules allow. That creates a whole new danger: the state's hands are tied if it wants to help the economy out of a crisis. Anyone who limits their fiscal flexibility that way perhaps didn't understand Keynes' message all that clearly."
The Financial Times Deutschland took on Deutsche Bank's prospects:
"A flop yesterday, on top today. The announcement that Deutsche Bank is expecting a profit in the second quarter and needs no further injections of capital was enough to buoy the bank's stocks. When the head of UBS said that after two major capital investments they didn't need a third, it helped the markets considerably."
"These reactions show just how nervous the stock markets are right now -- and how easily they could tip further. Investors are deeply insecure, for good reason. The financial crisis is far from over, and the worst could be yet to come."
"Warnings from banks about the international balance of payments or the deliberations of the US Federal Reserve mean that a few institutions are heading for big problems. The crisis in the financial system and in the real estate market continue to grow, particularly in the US. It's possible that in the next few months there will be further bad news."
And the center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote:
"Humanity thought they had won, but now the monster's back. All the books that declared its death are just a heap of paper. The monster creeps back, it feeds on your savings, steals money from your paycheck and makes it harder to buy a tank of gas and a plate of noodles. In Europe prices are climbing faster than they have since the introduction of the euro in 1999. Globally, prices are rising faster than they have in a decade. A threat to savings, employees and customers."
"The inflation monster is back, and with him the memories of how dangerous he can be are coming back. Across the world, people are reacting to the new attacks with fear and anger. In Haiti and Somalia, the poor are protesting higher rice prices and Spanish fishermen are lighting cars on fire outside the offices of the European Commission because the cost of marine diesel has become unaffordable. "
"Interest rates can do only so much against higher energy and food prices, because those are determined internationally. Aside from that there are no signs that employers will use inflation to worsen the wage-price spiral as they did in the 1970s. Interest rate hikes don't do much either, although they hurt growth which has already slowed thanks to the financial crisis. People shouldn't fight inflation in a way that will strengthen other monsters like mass unemployment and recession. The central bank should show that it's keeping an eye on price increases and growth. That will keep Europe in good shape and provide the world with an export-ready model on how to keep the inflation monster in check."
-- Andrew Curry, 2:30 pm CET