Letter from Berlin: Angela Merkel's Achilles Heel - DER SPIEGEL
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Letter from Berlin Angela Merkel's Achilles Heel

Chancellor candidate Angela Merkel chose him for his financial expertise. But Paul Kirchhof and his visions of a flat tax for Germany have proven to be a gigantic millstone around Merkel's neck. The campaign master Schröder is using it to his advantage.
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It was a perfect training program. Angela Merkel's seven years in the opposition -- time spent fighting off challengers within her own party to finally emerge as the Christian Democrat (CDU) candidate for chancellor in Sunday's general elections -- gave her plenty of time to put together her campaign recipe. A pinch -- but only a pinch -- of reform talk. A handful of job market fixes. A dash of tax-code modification. Bake until Sept. 18. Serves 82 million.

But apparently, the directions weren't clear enough. Instead of a campaign about the economic future of Germany, Merkel is now furiously back-pedaling on a man she handpicked for her campaign team in an attempt to add some tax expertise and economic gravitas. Merkel's dash of tax-code has turned into an uncontrolled dollop and the batter is now ruined. The dollop's name is Paul Kirchhof.

When Merkel first tapped Kirchhof for her shadow cabinet in mid-August, it looked like just the right move to ramp up her party's image of economic expertise. The former Constitutional Court justice and now well-respected law professor at the University of Heidelberg is widely seen as a guru in all things related to German taxes. And, for a couple of weeks anyway, Merkel's selection of Kirchhof was seen as a brilliant tactical maneuver.

But it didn't take long for master campaigner Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to sniff blood. Kirchhof, as it happens, is not only well-versed in the minutiae of Germany's bloated tax code, but he's also a passionate supporter of a radical tax reform that would result, if he were to have his way, in something that looks a lot like a flat tax. Conveniently ignoring the fact that Merkel's Christian Democrats have a different plan for Germany's tax code, "media chancellor" Schröder has laid into Kirchhof with every leftist, populist and anti-intellectual weapon he has at his disposal. The "Professor from Heidelberg" is an "odd figure" -- a "cold man" -- who has "little idea of reality." The Germans, he thundered to parliament last week, cannot be made into "Mr. Kirchhof's lab rats." His party pals have spent the last two weeks whistling the same doomsday tune. There is only one issue left in this campaign, and the Social Democrats (SPD) are doing everything they can to transform it into political capital.

The German electorate has responded. As recently as Sept. 5, polls indicated that Schröder's SPD trailed Merkel's CDU by fully 12 percentage points. Six days and one TV debate later -- a broadcast in which Schröder warned viewers about the CDU's bogeyman, the cold-hearted "Professor from Heidelberg" as often as he possibly could -- that lead had shrunk to a measly 5 percentage points. Whereas two weeks ago it looked like Merkel was set to comfortably waltz into the Chancellery, she is now battling for her political life.

Merkel's clumsy reaction has merely served to emphasize that she was completely blindsided by the onslaught of mud slinging. She has repeatedly said that Kirchhof's plan is not that of the CDU -- but has then left the door open for Schröder's attacks by calling Kirchhof a visionary and indicating that his plan offers an ideal the CDU might eventually strive for. Merkel has also been wishy washy about what role, if any, Kirchhof would play in her cabinet if her party wins Sunday's election. As the Kirchhof clash gathered steam, Merkel seemed particularly defensive in insisting he was merely part of the "competence team" put together for the campaign. But during Monday evening's televised debate between the leaders of Germany's major political parties, Merkel finally decided it was time to go on the offensive. She accused Schröder of lying about the CDU tax-reform plan and said Kirchhof would be Germany's next finance minister, "with the permission of the voters."

That, however, is looking increasingly unlikely. Nobody is yet seriously imagining that Merkel's party won't come out on top in the Sunday vote. But her desired coalition with the neo-liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) is no longer looking tenable; the two parties together have dropped below the 50 percent threshold necessary to form a government together. And Schröder is not about to let Merkel reverse that trend. The No. 1 aim of his recent campaign strategy has been to confuse voters by deliberately mixing the Kirchhof plan up with the tax plan officially adopted in the CDU campaign platform. Indeed, in doing so, he seems finally to have hit his left-of-center stride. After years of striking the pose of the reform chancellor, he is now back on Robin Hood territory defending the little guy against the rich, rapacious capitalists.

Yet even as Merkel's CDU rails against Chancellor Schröder for his deliberate demonizing of Kirchhof, many party members are also beginning once again to voice their dissatisfaction with Merkel. Bavaria governor Edmund Stoiber -- who lost to Schröder in 2002 -- Hesse governor Roland Koch, and Lower Saxony governor Christian Wulff have all made it clear in recent days that they were against Merkel's decision to bring Kirchhof on-board in the first place. And should the CDU have a poorer than expected showing on Sunday, Merkel will once again be in the wobbly position of having to ward off the power hungry wolves in her own party. Many are even calling for the return of finance expert Friedrich Merz, an archenemy of Merkel who she pushed aside last year as she was consolidating her inner-party power. Calling him back into the party leadership would represent a major defeat for the chancellor candidate.

Meanwhile, Kirchhof himself seems to be doing whatever he can to make life difficult for Merkel. Only recently has the academic begun realizing that silence, in the trench warfare of party politics, can be golden. And silence is not something that comes naturally to a man many have accused of being more arrogant than approachable. "I talk about all issues until I have nothing more to say," he responded when asked recently if Merkel had tried to muzzle him. "Nobody would attempt such an impertinence with me and I wouldn't accept it if they did." And on Tuesday, he announced he would be happy to work together with Merkel foe Merz.

The odd thing about the brouhaha is that Kirchhof's tax plan -- even if it has critics from all sides of the political spectrum -- is hardly the make-the-rich-richer-and-poor-poorer scenario that Schröder would have voters believe. The primary element of the plan is a 25 percent flat tax across the board. But there would also be a 15 percent bracket and a 20 percent bracket for those earning less.

Though support for the Kirchhof plan has been fleeting, most Germans do agree on the fact the country's byzantine tax code needs a massive overhaul -- whatever form it takes. Germany has one of the most complicated tax codes in the world and experts say it has become a hurdle to foreign investment.

For the moment, however, that hardly matters. Schröder has finally found an issue he can sink his teeth into. He knows that, even as polls indicate a willingness for continued reform, Germans instinctively shy away from any policy proposals that smell of being windfalls for the rich -- Kirchhof's proposal would mean tax cuts for the upper brackets. And that, many here fear, would shrink the government coffers and, consequently, lead to the erosion of federally funded social programs.

Time, of course, is not on Schröder's side. He only has four days left to avoid early retirement. Already, though, his attack on the "Professor from Heidelberg" appears likely to have saved his party from going into the opposition. Polls now indicate that Merkel will have to swallow a bitter pill after the vote and form a grand coalition with Schröder's party. It's a safe bet there would be no room for Kirchhof in such a government.

Besides, being forced into a grand coalition with her party's long-time nemesis, the SPD, would spell a major strategic defeat for Merkel. Indeed, with detractors within and without her party, her stay at the helm of the German government could be a short one.

With reporting by the staff of Der Spiegel

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