Letter From Berlin Merkel's Dwindling Courage
It didn't take long for the comparisons to start. When Angela Merkel, head of Germany's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) was nominated by her party in June to run against Gerhard Schroeder in this autumn's snap general elections, people immediately began talking about "Maggie Merkel" or "Angela Thatcher." She was supposed to be Germany's very own Iron Lady. Indeed, as recently as October 2003, Merkel had said that the reforms necessary to fix Germany's economic problems would result in "wailing and gnashing of teeth."
But now, especially following Merkel's presentation of her party's election platform on Monday, it seems the "Aluminum Lady" might be a better moniker for Merkel. Soft and malleable. Indeed, the closer Merkel gets to the chancellery -- where, with her party leading in the opinion polls by a hefty 16 percent, she is widely expected to land after the expected Sept. 18 vote -- the more she seems to be backing away from the pledges she has made in the past few years for sweeping and painful reforms. And with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) tilting to the left to combat a newly formed leftist-populist party, Merkel appears to be comfortably sliding into the baby-step-reform vacuum they have left behind. Merkel is becoming a reformer light.
In some respects, the platform presented by Merkel reads as though it has been ghost-written by Schroeder. One year ago, she was talking about a hefty 10.6 billion tax cut. Now, she wants to cut taxes at both the high and low ends of the salary scale by 3 percent -- but the cuts would be made meaningless by her proposed elimination of certain write-offs. She also wants to reduce corporate taxes by 3 percent -- a proposed cut that is just half of that called for by Schroeder. Hardly the type of radical reforms that had been her drum beat until recently. She even managed to bury the biggest sticking point between the two parties -- a proposed health system reform -- on page 26 of her 39-page-long platform.
The make-up's a little different, but the foundation's the same
The most immediate result of her makeover, with Germany's two major political parties' largely shared visions, is that the country may very well be headed for a so-called "grand coalition." That would put two parties generally known for waging low-scale political warfare against each other into a single, power-sharing government. It wouldn't be the first time.
From 1966 to 1969, the same two parties gave it a go together in a government characterized by surprisingly amicable cooperation -- at least until the SPD unceremoniously dumped the CDU in favor of the neoliberal Free Democratic Party. And this time around, politicians in both parties seem to be laying the groundwork. The conservative wing of the SPD, according to an article in Tuesday's Die Welt, has declared itself open to the possibility of a grand coalition and party head Franz Muentefering hinted the same in a recent television interview. "There could be situations in Germany in which voters have decided and a government must be created that looks different than it has up to now." The SPD has also recently been distancing itself from its current coalition partner, the Greens.
What is going on here? As for the SPD, it's fairly obvious that, given their abysmal poll numbers, the party is open for any possibility to stay in the government -- even if it means jumping in the sack with its arch-rivals. But what about the CDU? One explanation, clearly, is that all political parties in Germany -- with the possible exception of the FDP -- share a deep commitment to the social state. In practice, this means that rather than fundamental philosophical differences on the role of government a la the United States, Germany's parties tend to differ only as to which screws to turn when giving the motor of the welfare state a tune-up.
But what happened to the courage that led Merkel to skewer Schroeder's government in recent years for the alleged failures of his reform package? Part of it clearly has to do with her facing up to the realities of a country reeling under 4.7 million unemployed and a 1.45 trillion national debt -- which every year balloons by more than the turnover of Bertelsmann, Infineon, ThyssenKrupp and BMW combined. Then, of course, there's Germany's demographic problem - the country is more "Golden Girls" than "Buffy the Vampire Slayer." The conservatives' platform does little to alleviate any of these ticking time bombs.
Compassionate conservative German style
Why is Merkel afraid to act? In a recent interview with the influential weekly Die Zeit, she said, "Fear is not a category for me. I have respect for the task (of governing) and I feel -- even if it sounds old-fashioned -- a sense of humility." Nevertheless, she is acutely aware of the risk of being branded "unsocial" -- translation: "cold-hearted" -- by her opponents. She's trying to be the German version of Bush's (long-since jettisoned) "compassionate conservative." Thus, her platform faithfully lists the failures of Schroeder's seven-year-old governing coalition, but provides precious little in the way of concrete proposals that might jump-start the country's ailing economy.
And perhaps this is part of Merkel's strategy: namely, that of leaving the voters in the dark as to what exactly is waiting for them come September. So far, the only sign that she may ask voters to make a few financial sacrifices has come in the form of her promise to raise German sales tax by 2 percent to a total of 18 percent.
But even this pledge suggests her party's course is drifting ever closer to the SPD. Leaders of the FDP, which is still considered a likely coalition partner for Merkel's party, have said they would do everything in their power to resist such a tax hike. And if the CDU poll numbers drop by even 1 percent, a CDU-FDP coalition would no longer have the 50 percent necessary to combat an opposition made up of three left-of-center parties.
Where does this leave Germany? It certainly doesn't look like the new government -- whichever parties it may include -- is going to be particularly aggressive about getting the country out of its current economic rut. A Chancellor Merkel could very well stumble over the same hurdles that sent Schroeder tumbling. "We know the challenges facing the country and have clear ideas on how to move forward," Merkel said in the interview. Let's hope she's right, because so far it looks like Germany may be slouching toward a sad status quo this fall.