This isn't how Germany's opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) expected the country's surprise election campaign to play out. After Chancellor Gerhard Schröder called for an early vote in May, it looked like he'd just sealed his own political fate. With Schröder's Social Democratic Party (SPD) wallowing at all-time lows in opinion polls, the conservatives figured their victory was a done deal.

But in what appears to be a clear reversal of fortune, the SPD is on the rebound just as the CDU's once rock-steady support has started to crumble. Similarly, while Schröder has taken to the campaign trail with acumen and gusto, the conservatives' chancellor candidate Merkel has slid from one faux pas to another.

Schröder is undoubtedly still facing an uphill battle to be re-elected. But the chancellor as Dead Man Walking? Hardly. Instead of grim resignation, Schröder has projected nothing but good vibes and confidence in recent days. Able to connect with factory workers as easily as he does with art lovers -- Gerd the Mensch is revelling in campaigning just as he always has.

That stands in stark contrast to Merkel, who is suddenly no longer being seen as the inevitable winner on September 18. Her campaign presence has been extremely unsteady of late. Often seeming awkward and uncomfortable at public appearances, Merkel is leaving German voters with the impression that she is anything but an assured, can-do leader prepared to run the country.

First, as if to confirm she was afraid to go toe to toe with the media-savvy Schröder, the head of the CDU agreed to have only one TV debate based on the silly assertion there wasn't enough time for the second duel the chancellor had sought.

Even worse, however, was the way Merkel set herself up for SPD operatives to attack her economic credentials. In two separate interviews last week, she confused workers' before- and after-tax wages. A simple gaffe perhaps mixing up gross and net, but not exactly the image a party that claims to represent economic competence wants to project.

As the Social Democrats flogged the mistake for all it was worth, the conservatives' damage control system was unable to quell the matter.

"The way the CDU dealt with Merkel's mistakes was unprofessional," said Michael Spreng, the media advisor for the conservative's last general election in 2002. "It strengthens the impression that she hasn't completely mastered economic and financial issues."

Unable to compete with Schröder's charisma to make a personal connection with voters, Merkel will have to raise her game if she is going to expect to beat him on the issues.

Although Germans vote for political parties and not chancellor candidates, federal elections are often heavily personalized contests. Voters pick the person they want to run the country, not the party with the snappiest campaign platform. And there Schröder -- even though the SPD has trailed the CDU for years -- has always had the edge.

Swing against change

In a recent survey by pollster Infratest Dimap, 48 percent of voters said they'd pick Schröder and only 39 percent Merkel if they voted for the chancellor directly. That contrasts with only 29 percent of voters supporting the SPD, while 42 percent back the CDU. But Richard Hilmer from Infratest Dimap said there was a clear "broad-front trend" favoring the Social Democrats as the nation's mood has begun to swing.

Races naturally tighten as election day comes closer, but few pundits expected the gap to narrow as dramatically as it did in another recent survey. Many disgruntled Germans, fed up with a flagging economy and Schröder's unpopular welfare cuts, have long supported a tossing out his center-left coalition of Social Democrats and Greens. But over the weekend, the Forsa group polled a 51 percent majority against a change in government, rising from only 44 percent at the end of May.

Naturally, the odds are still in favor of Merkel ousting Schröder next month. The new pan-German socialist Left Party formed from the former communist Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) in the east and rebel Social Democrats in the west will make it very difficult for the SPD to stay the largest party in parliament.