If you visit Berlin's washing-machine-esque chancellery these days, you'd be surprised by the casual atmosphere -- it's bordering on cheerful. The scene is a dramatic change from the somber mood that has hung in the corridors since May, when Chancellor Gerhard Schröder called snap elections for September. It's an election most believe he can only lose. However, early missteps by Schröder's opponents are starting to add up. In fact, by now, there are almost enough of them to fill an evening's worth of TV bloopers and blunders. For the chancellor, however, they are like manna from heaven. Schröder's chief of staff, Frank-Walter Steinmeier has been astounded by how much Schröder has blossomed recently -- just in time for the election's final heat. His appearances on television shows and at stump speeches have had an "aphrodisiac-like effect," Steinmeier says.

Schröder's newfound confidence certainly isn't coming from public opinion polls. The latest surveys still show the Social Democrats polling beneath the 30 percent mark and suggest that Schröder's next job will be fishing on a pond somewhere near his home city of Hanover. But the past two weeks have shown his opponent, the Christian Democrats, to be highly disorganized and lacking a coordinated political strategy. Led by chancellor candidate Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber, the leaders of the CDU/CSU Union have made one gaffe after another -- with each successive embarrassment helping to take the spotlight off of Schröder's slow-motion departure from power.

Specifically, the CDU/CSU'S joint leading candidate, Angela Merkel, has been publicly jousting with her junior political partner, Edmund Stoiber of the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, over the right political strategy for the Union in the weeks leading up to Sept. 18 elections. In his attempt to score more votes than the CDU's traditional government coalition partner, the neo-liberal Free Democratic Party, Stoiber has been running like a shadow candidate, often stealing the limelight from Merkel.

As the in-fighting between Merkel and Stoiber unfolded, Schröder came off as cooly statesman-like. Now, his party also seems to be emerging from an early election funk that had it spinning its wheels. How did all this come about? Let's recap:

The Union started its campaign with a discussion about raising taxes -- not exactly the best strategy for winning voters. To make matters worse, Merkel mixed up gross and net wages several times in recent days.

Then, Jörg Schönbohm, the CDU's chief in the eastern state of Brandenburg sought to explain the tragic murder of nine babies in Eastern Germany by blaming the "proletarianization" of East Germans under the former-communist regime. Schönbohm was immediately accused of propagating gross generalizations and of displaying crass insensitivity and Merkel demanded he publicly retract his statements.

But the Christian Democrats' greatest snafu came when Stoiber -- who is still smarting over the fact that 6,000 eastern German votes kept him from becoming chancellor when he ran against Schröder in 2002 -- said at a campaign appearance in a Bavarian village last week that disenchanted eastern Germans shouldn't be entrusted to determine the country's fate. (See sidebar for excerpts.) "I don't want to see the east determine the outcome of yet another election," he said.

CSU political leaders have suggested Stoiber's outbursts were intended to mobilize voters in Bavaria. Of course, Stoiber can't harm his own party in eastern Germany, since the CSU only exists in Bavaria and in the federal parliament through a power-sharing agreement with the larger CDU. His politically incorrect outbursts may harm the Christian Democrats in the east, but they receive wild applause in the beer tents of Bavaria. It all fits in neatly with Stoiber's political strategy of trying to score enough votes in Bavaria alone to outweigh the Union's planned coalition partner, the neo-liberal Free Democratic Party, in the federal parliament. If he succeeds, this could give Stoiber's party far greater leverage for decision-making in the CDU/CSU political bloc. It would also take some of the wind out of the sails of the Christian Democrats traditional coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party, which has designs on the prestigious foreign minister post.

Persona non grata

But Stoiber's brashness has been a bitter pill to swallow for the CDU, whose chancellor candidate herself is an East German and will have to draw on votes there. Merkel has distanced herself from Stoiber's comments, saying: "Insulting voters is the wrong approach."

Across eastern Germany, the fact that one of the country's top Christian Democrats would issue such a blanket criticism of eastern voters struck like a political typhoon. After all, this is a region where the CDU has to fight for every voter and faces competition from the popular former communists (the PDS) and far-right parties like the NPD. These days, CDU officials in eastern Germany are finding their in-boxes filled with hate letters and e-mail from outraged voters. Indeed, a quick scan of editorials and political cartoons shows that Stoiber, the "Ossi (a pejorative term for Easterners) hater" is swiftly becoming public enemy No. 1 in the eastern states. CDU leaders in the east have publicly pleaded with Stoiber not to visit the states in the countdown to elections.

The CDU and CSU are also entering the election with differing tactical strategies. The CDU wants to eschew a dirty political campaign and instead present real alternatives to the Social Democrats -- repeating the successful and serious issues-based campaign that put the CDU in control of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia in May. But the CSU, led by Stoiber wants to pull out its fists, slamming the failures of Schröder's government while at the same time painting Oskar Lafontaine and Gregor Gysi's Left Party as a bastion of populism with empty promises that will bankrupt Germany at a time when it desperately needs reforms. Stoiber says the campaign should be aggressive with "tough confrontation" -- focusing on the dangers of a Left Party success and the crippling national deficit the Social Democrats and Greens will leave behind when they leave the government. "We can't just act as though we're already governing," Stoiber said, cautioning against a kid-glove campaign.

The shadow cast by the omnipresent Stoiber has all the subtlety of a punch in the gut for Merkel. The CDU leader herself had her eyes set on the chancellery in 2002, but she stood in the wings and gracefully and loyally campaigned on behalf of Stoiber when the parties instead selected the Bavarian governor as their joint leading candidate. Her fierce loyalty sometimes seemed to verge on outright self-denial. But conservative Bavaria is crucial to the Christian Democrats -- after the 2002 elections, the CSU was the third-strongest party in Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, and Stoiber pulled in 58.6 percent of Bavarian voters. In a recent interview with Stern magazine, Stoiber put it bluntly: "Without the party I represent, the Union (CDU/CSU) could not win a national election."

Nevertheless, Stoiber has angered CDU leaders, including Christian Wulff, the governor of Lower Saxony, by revealing some of the names of Merkel's senior policy advisors -- some of whom would later land in cabinet posts if her party gets elected to government. Wulff described the responsibility as the most-important available to a chancellor candidate. He then pointed his finger at Stoiber, reminding him of Merkel's loyalty to her political rival in the last election. "I expect the CSU to show the chancellor candidate the same loyalty she showed them in 2002," he said. On Wednesday, Stoiber stood at Merkel's side in a show of support as she unveiled her "competence team" of potential future cabinet members. But the Bavarian governor's own position in a Merkel-led Germany remains unclear -- Stoiber says he won't make any decision about whether to stay in Munich or move to Berlin until after Sept. 18.

For their part, the Social Democrats are loving the circus atmosphere and Schröder hasn't seemed this relaxed in months. While the Union continued with its internecine strategy battles last week, Gerhard Schröder turned up in the small town of Velbert in North Rhine-Westphalia for the opening of a small garden facility. "Dear gardeners," he told the crowd. "Take note: When the sun shines in Velbert, it's because the SPD made it happen. But if the clouds come, it's the CDU."

But for Stoiber at least, those clouds have failed to materialize.

The CSU leader still hasn't backed away from any of his statements about eastern Germans and he is continuing to wage a rhetorical war against the Left Party. And though his tone may be softening, don't expect any u-turns. A new poll published by Stern shows the Christian Democrats leap-frogging the Left Party to become the strongest party in eastern Germany, with 31 percent of voters compared to 26 percent for Gysi and Lafontaine. Just one week ago, the Left Party was No. 1 in the east, with 31 percent. Stoiber said Wednesday he had paid "great attention" to the new figures. Indeed, with the Christian Democrats gaining in the east he might actually be able to justify his recent tactics.