The International Atomic Energy Agency is meeting in Vienna on Monday to once again take a close look at the Iranian nuclear research program. Officially, the IAEA wants to discuss Iran's compliance with the agency's early February demand that the country cease enriching uranium. But with diplomatic channels essentially blocked -- Iran's talks with Russia are seemingly at a dead end and negotiations with the EU likewise stalled -- there is plenty at stake at the Monday meeting. The IAEA may finally -- as indicated in February -- send the issue to the United Nations Security Council, a first step toward possible sanctions or eventually even military action.

The potential for escalation is clear. Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, told reporters in Tehran that "if Iran's nuclear dossier is referred to the UN Security Council, (large scale) uranium enrichment will be resumed," according to the Associated Press. "If they want to use force," he warned, referring to the international community, "we will pursue our own path."

Head of the Iranian IAEA delegation Javad Vaeidi also issued a barely veiled warning during a Sunday interview with French news agency AFP. Referring Iran to the Security Council "would trigger a confrontation" which would harm both Iranian and European interests. The situation would become "uncontrollable," he warned. "The Europeans have to know that we will not give up our research program."

Iran continues to insist that its nuclear research program is peaceful in nature and intended only for energy production. But many in the West and elsewhere are concerned that Iran is looking to produce a nuclear weapon.

It is unlikely that the Iranian bluster will prevent an eventual council referral unless Iran proves willing to compromise. Recently, that has not seemed the case. A Russian offer which called for uranium for Iranian nuclear power plants to be enriched in Russia had shown some promise, but Iran last week indicated its interest in the offer was fading . Talks between Iran and the European Union troika made up of Britain, France and Germany have been shelved indefinitely. One last round of talks took place last Friday, but with no result.

"Despite good and constructive talks, we unfortunately didn't hear any new and promising suggestions from the Iranian side," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Sunday. "The situation is serious."

US pressure

The United States, for its part, is seeking to increase the pressure on the Iranians. While US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice continues to emphasize that a referral to the UN would not necessarily result in sanctions, the American ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton on Sunday was unequivocal. "The longer we wait to confront the threat Iran poses, the harder and more intractable it will become to solve," Bolton said in an address to an American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference. Iran "must be made aware that if it continues down the path of international isolation, there will be tangible and painful consequences," he said. Last week, Bolton hinted to a group of British parliamentarians visiting Washington that military strikes  were an option. "You only have to take out one part of their nuclear operation to take the whole thing down," he said according to Eric Illsley, a Labour parliamentarian who spoke to the Guardian.

Any sort of concrete action on the part of the Security Council is still likely months away. Both Russia and China, while their patience is thinning, are not likely to go for immediate sanctions. And many are hoping that the mere threat of action may be enough to change Iran's mind.

Further diplomacy is likewise still an option. The United States has still not become involved in any direct negotiations with the Iranians and voices calling for US-Iran talks are growing. Joschka Fischer, Germany's ex-foreign minister, said recently "Europe by itself isn't strong enough. We need the United States." Iranian opposition leader Shirin Ebadi goes even further: "It is simply absurd that the United States and the most important country in the Middle East refuse to speak with each other directly."