The presidential elections in the Palestinian Authority are now exactly one month away. On Jan. 9, Palestinians will go to the polls to choose Yasser Arafat's successor -- and to choose the direction in which they want their leadership to take them. Stalled peace talks with Israel promise to play a major role in the balloting.

Yet despite the quickly approaching vote, the guessing game over candidates continues in the Palestinian Authority. And the speculation continues to center on a man currently serving five life terms in an Israeli prison: presidential candidate Marwan Barghouti. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that Barghouti was considering withdrawing from the race if his main opponent, Mahmoud Abbas from Yasser Arafat's Fatah Movement, agrees to his political demands. The report attributes the information to an unnamed senior Fatah official.

That, says Barghouti's campaign chief and Jerusalem Fatah leader Ahmed Ghnaim, is not true. His candidate, a long-time Fatah member who is running as an independent candidate in the Jan. 9 poll, is still in the horse race. On Wednesday, Ghnaim told the Jerusalem Post: "We decided today that I am the only person who can speak on behalf of Marwan."

The "yes-he's-running-no-he's-not" game isn't a new one. Barghouti also kept people in suspense prior to the proxy filing of his candidacy papers by his wife Fadwa Barghouti just hours before the entry deadline last Wednesday. Indeed, observers say, until his wife officially withdraws him from the race, the tug-o-war surrounding candidate Barghouti is likely just political posturing. Fadwa has so far remained silent on the issue. Yet despite her silence and despite Ghnaim's claims to the contrary, a Barghouti pull-out is definitely plausible -- but it depends, to a large degree, on Abbas.

Polls indicate a tight race

Clearly, Abbas would be relieved to see Barghouti renege on his candidacy. The most-recent poll, released Wednesday by the independent Jerusalem Media and Communication Center, shows Barghouti giving him a run for his money; Abbas leads with 31.9 percent to Barghouti's 26.4 percent. In the West Bank, the two candidates are in a dead heat.

More significant even than the current poll numbers, is Barghouti's incredible popularity among the younger generation of Palestinians. In contrast to Abbas, 45-year-old Barghouti has charisma and the aura of a warrior. "We need to fight back and kill Israelis," he was quoted as saying at the very beginning of the so-called Second Intifada which started in the autumn of 2000. He quickly developed into one of the movement's spokesmen and, for that reason he is seen by many Palestinians as a political prisoner -- despite his conviction for the killings of five Israelis. Indeed, that conviction is a major part of his popularity. The powerful image of him raising his cuffed hands in a victory gesture during his 2002 trial is plastered on walls all over the Palestinian Authority.

Like his challenger Abbas, Barghouti also claims to be Arafat's "true" successor. He only decided to make a run for the presidency "following much thought and hundreds of letters from Fatah followers and from other organizations," he wrote in a written statement issued immediately following his entry into the campaign. "My goal is to ensure that we remain true to the path of the Intifada and to the path of resistance and to prevent both from being dismissed as terrorism." He also wrote that his entry into the "democratic battle is an act of loyalty to Arafat, to the martyrs, to the prisoners and to all other victims." It is a message that plays well.

Young Palestinians eschew Abbas

Abbas, on the other hand, is widely disliked by younger Palestinians. The 69-year-old is considered corrupt, arrogant and too willing to make compromises with Israel. He also wrote a paper in which he expressed opposition to the militarization of the Intifada -- a move that ingratiated him with the United States, Israel and Europe. But it wasn't received well by Palestinians. He is also a member of the Fatah old-guard, the so-called Abus (fathers), who only returned from exile in the mid 1990s. To the disdain of younger Palestinians, many moved into plush, expensive villas.

So why the poker game with Barghouti's candidacy? One reason likely stems from his jailbait status; should he win, it is by no means certain that Israel will release him. Secondly, he is also aware of the damage his candidacy could do to the unity of Fatah. In a recent letter to supporters, Barghouti wrote, "I have a heavy heart about harming the unity and strength of Fatah."

In the end, Barghouti's strategy is likely to leverage his popularity to draw as many concessions from Abbas as possible before ultimately abandoning his own bid. The Reuters report lays out a long grocery list of Bargouti's desires. They include his insistance that East Jerusalem be the capital of any future Palestinian state, that a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem be found, and -- this should bring little by way of surprise considering his current predicament -- a demand that Israel release its Palestinian prisoners.

"If Abbas agrees to adopt these points, Marwan will withdraw and an announcement will be made very soon," Reuters quoted the senior Fatah official as saying.

But Barghouti's other main message is that it is time for the Fatah Movement to begin handing over some of its power to the younger generation. In many ways, his candidacy is a shot across the establishment bow -- a warning that its power is eroding. Any withdrawal deal is likely to include positions in the government for himself (many see him, without irony, as a likely Minister for Prisoners' Affairs) and for other younger Fatah Movement politicians.