If dictator Kim Jong Il breaks the moratorium he imposed on himself in 1998 and orders the test firing of a long-range missile there will be serious security repercussions for Asia: the already arduous six-way talks in which the US, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia are trying to dissuade Kim from pursuing his nuclear plans would be in danger.

In addition, the Japanese could seize on the test as a reason to arm more quickly. Tokyo and Washington already plan to develop a common missile defence system, much to China's irritation. China has warned its ally North Korea. Firing a Taepodong-2 missile -- which presumably has sufficient range to hit the United States -- would not be "constructive" and would have a "strongly negative" impact on the six-way talks, Beijing's UN ambassador Wang Guanghua said a few days ago. The South Korean government has also expressed its concern. Japan even threatened to impose economic sanctions -- a ban on money transfers and a halt to ferry traffic, for example.

No one knows what Kim is thinking. It can't be ruled out that he will ignore all the warnings. He may be speculating that his neighbors will at the last minute offer him raw materials and food deliveries to prevent a test. He may also be hoping to force the Americans to engage in direct talks with Pyongyang. There are mounting calls from influential people in Washington to start talking directly to North Korea, outside the framework of the six-way negotiations. Kim may also be motivated by domestic political reasons.

Courting military hardliners

" Dear Leader " Kim has to satisfy the die-hards in his army who want to demonstrate their strength by making threatening gestures to the US. Analysts say Kim has been increasingly courting his military leaders. In recent weeks the "Comrade General" has been visiting military units more frequently than usual. The strong man of the secluded realm is currently Vice Marshal Jo Myong Rok, analysts say. His power base consists of conservative generals and a group of diplomats. His position appears unassailable because he was a close friend of Kim's father Kim Il Sung, the founder of the state and "Eternal President" who died in 1994.

A missile firing, possibly declared as a satellite launch, would also stoke feelings of national pride in the isolated country hit by severe shortages. The public system for distributing groceries appears to have broken down again in large parts of the country. The urban population outside the privileged capital Pyongyang, in particular, is having big difficulties finding enough to eat. After North Korea last year rejected United Nations food aid, the UN's World Food Program has now been allowed to distribute high-protein biscuits to children.

Fitting in with the policy of mobilizing the exhausted population, a mass demonstration was staged in Pyongyang last Sunday. According to state media, "Kim Il Sung square was rocked with voices condemning the US imperialists, the sworn enemy of the Korean people." A further possible motive of Kim's could be that the cash-strapped country needs buyers for its missiles. A successful test could persuade the Iranians to go shopping in Pyongyang. Iranian missiles are believed to be based on North Korean "Rodong" medium range missile technology.