SPECIAL REPORT The Coming of Kyoto
When the Kyoto Protocol went into effect on Feb. 16, it became the first-ever global attempt to slow the effects of greenhouse gases on the Earth's atmosphere. Kyoto's stated goal is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least 5 percent from 1990 levels by 2012. It comes into effect at a time when glaciers are melting at an unprecedented pace and the polar ice melt imperils low-lying archipelago nations and coastal regions through rising ocean levels and threatens to disrupt the flow of ocean currents that temper the climate in the Atlantic. Scientists predict that some countries, like the Maldives , could be rendered uninhabitable in as few as 50 years. Most scientists believe these developments are the direct consequence of climate change and global warming.
Kyoto takes the first concrete steps to counter these developments. It requires that each country set its own reduction targets that will contribute to an overall sinking of greenhouse-gas emissions. Germany, for example, has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas production by 21 percent by 2010. But the United States, which is responsible for one-quarter of the world's emissions, will not be obligated to any reductions since it has resisted signing on to the treaty.
An emissions trading system is built in to Kyoto that allows countries to sell emissions certificates if they are ahead of their targets or buy them if they are unable to reach their goal. This system has been a lightning rod for criticism of Kyoto. Further criticism has been generated by the fact that developing nations aren't required to commit to reductions. With India and China expected to join the league of the world's biggest producers of greenhouse gases in the coming decades, critics led by the White House have latched on to this shortcoming as justification for not supporting Kyoto.
Kyoto was first approved in 1997 at an international climate conference in the serene and idyllic Japanese city. But a final date for the treaty to go into effect could only be set after 55 countries, representing 55 percent of the world's toxic emissions had ratified Kyoto. That happened this fall when Russian Premier Vladimir Putin and the Russian parliament gave the climate change treaty a nod of approval. In total, 127 countries have now ratified Kyoto.
What they have agreed to, of course, is a very watered-down treaty. No one can dispute the fact that Kyoto's goals are extremely modest. Indeed, few scientists believe Kyoto will make a big difference and most are hoping it represents a symbolic start of something much bigger. According to the German government, climate researchers estimate that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 60-70 percent in the mid- to long-term.
But if action isn't taken, the consequences could be far worse. According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, within several decades at least 150 million people will have to leave flooded coastal regions or areas that have been destroyed by drought or storms. Extreme weather episodes will increase -- both in quantity and scope. An increase in the number of malaria cases and hunger is expected to increase in the world. The effects, including those from rising ocean levels, would hit those parts of the world that already seem overly prone to catastrophe: the islands of the Caribbean, the coastal regions of the Indian Ocean and Africa.
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