Dresden, Germany -- Scientists say that a lack of reliable rainfall is jeopardizing the future of the Elbe River, one of Europe's most important shipping lanes. According to Frank Wechsung and his colleagues at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research  (PIK) near Berlin, rain water is no longer filling the river as reliably as it once did -- leaving ships without enough water beneath their keels during the drier summer months. The institute's forecasts suggest that in the future, water scarcity will only worsen.

"It is highly likely that the Elbe will dry up even more," warns Wechsung. In the recent study, Wechsung calculates that a trend of increasingly frequent low-water periods has already started. "Even if we assume that precipitation stays at its current level, it is still certain that temperatures will increase," he said. Warmer weather means that moisture in drainage areas evaporate before it can flow into the river. Wechsung believes there is a "high possibility there will be even less summer rainfall in the future" in Germany, further compounding the situation.

Over the last 30 years there has been an average of 123 summer days when not a drop of rain fell in the entire Elbe region. In the previous 30 years, there were only 85 days without rain.