EU Energy Policy Can Germany Really Shut Down its Nuclear Reactors?
Alexander Potapov's moment in the spotlight came at 9:07 a.m. on Thursday of last week, during a gray and rainy morning. The chief engineer at the oil pumping facility in the Russian backwater town of Novosybkov pushed a button, and sighs of relief were heard in half of Europe. Oil was once more flowing through the 8,000 kilometer-long (4,970 mile) Russian mega-pipeline called "Druzhba" ("Friendship").
Europe is looking for a comprehensive new energy policy.
Foto: AFPPotapov's pumping station in the marshy landscape along the state border between Russia and Belarus had been out of operation for three days. A number of Central European countries, including Germany, were cut off from Russian oil. Moscow chose to risk upsetting its European customers to force through more lucrative contracts with its stubborn neighbor Belarus.
Just a few hours before the oil was turned back on, 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) further west, José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, strode onto the Brussels stage. He then proceeded to announce nothing less than a revolution in European energy policy.
Barroso called for the investment of billions of euros into climate protection measures and the expansion of renewable energy use. He talked about promoting competition between the various energy providers and about reducing dependence on natural gas and oil exports - including those from Russia.
"Europe must lead the world into a new, post-industrial revolution," Barroso said. "We need new policies to face a new reality."
It was a coincidence that Potapov's moment in the spotlight coincided with Barroso's -- but one that amounts to a kind of reality check for Germany's governing coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats. Just as German Chancellor Angela Merkel takes over the rotating European Union presidency for the first six months of 2007, she is being reminded of her promise to develop a strong and sustainable German energy policy in the near future.
Crucial questions about that future are at stake. How can dependence on Russian shipments of oil and natural gas be reduced? What would a climate-friendly energy mix look like if Germany's nuclear reactors were really shut down, as is currently planned? And how can electricity and gas prices be kept low by means of increased competition?
Feeling the pressure
The coalition is feeling the pressure to act and a policy outline should be finished by summer. Already, though, it is clear that the views of Merkel's Christian Democrats differ from those of the Social Democrats on virtually every important issue. Any agreement, it seems, would be a far cry from far-reaching.
Just how strongly the coalition partners' views diverge became clear from the reactions to Russia's interruption of oil shipments. Edmund Stoiber, the leader of the Christian Democrats' Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), said Germany has to rethink its plan to phase out nuclear energy -- a policy introduced by the previous German administration under Gerhard Schröder.
Speaking for the SPD, Environmental Minister Sigmar Gabriel was quick to remind the conservatives of the coalition contract, which clearly stipulates that the nuclear phase-out would not be touched. Chancellor Merkel was able to curb the debate, but it wasn't easy. "I'm faithful to the contract," she assured the Social Democrats.
Economics Minister Michael Glos (CSU) and Environmental Minister Gabriel (SPD) are the two politicians in the governing coalition responsible for energy policy. And the two are already fighting an embittered small-scale war. Barroso's proposals for reforming the EU's energy policy are stoking the fires of the conflict. The plan is for Barroso's ideas to be implemented in Germany too - but that would require Glos and Gabriel to agree with one another.
Specifically, the European Commission wants to:
- Drastically change the energy mix in the EU member states. Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and water power are to make up 20 percent of this energy mix by the year 2020. But nuclear energy with its practically emission-free power plants could play an important role too, if the European Commission has its way. Glos is clearly in favor of nuclear energy, while Gabriel is no less clearly opposed;
- Implement a process of decartelization that would force major energy providers to sell their distribution networks. This measure is intended to accelerate competition on the energy market, which is currently limited. Small providers are to be given a fair chance to establish themselves on the market. Glos is no longer opposed to the measure in principle, but he also wants stricter legislation on competition and closer observation of the prices charged by corporations. Gabriel is opposed to such observation;
- Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. To achieve this, billions are to be invested in energy-saving and energy efficiency programs. The European Commission's goal is to lower greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 30 percent (in comparison to 1990 levels) by 2020. Gabriel expressly welcomes this project; Glos is merely prepared to "discuss" it.
Hot air
The two opponents are swamping each other with statements of protest, debate papers and spite. "Glos's job isn't easy. The system he works with has been degenerating for 20 years," says the Environmental Ministry. And the Economics Ministry is no less acerbic: "What Gabriel says is just hot air."
The field of climate policy is especially contested. A discussion paper circulated within Glos's ministry describes the consequences of an "especially ambitious climate policy." The paper says such a policy is "not compatible with the continued phasing out of nuclear energy, given current energy predictions, which are seen as realistic." The progressive shutting down of Germany's 19 nuclear power plants and their replacement with power plants fueled by natural gas or goal would have dramatic consequences for future carbon dioxide levels, the paper says. The paper also projects an annual "surplus emission of about 40 million tons" for 2010, and one of 130 million tons for 2020.
But Glos's opponent Gabriel has quite different figures to present. In a new "Guiding Scenario" developed for his ministry by the German Aerospace Center (DLR), experts assume that renewable energy sources will provide 15.7 percent of Germany's energy needs by 2020, a marked increase over today's figure of 4.5 percent. If power plant technology becomes more efficient, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent (vis-à-vis 1990 levels) "could be achieved" even without nuclear energy, according to the scenario.
Another controversial question is that of how Germany will deal with the EU's so-called emissions trading system. Last year Glos and Gabriel engaged in a cumbersome search for a compromise and decided that in the future Germany will issue so-called emission rights worth 482 million tons of carbon dioxide to industry free of charge. Should a corporation spew out more CO2 than allowed, they would have to purchase emissions certificates from other companies.
The European Commission rejected this plan and demanded that Germany restrict its issuing of emission rights to 453 million tons. Gabriel wasn't opposed to the request in principle. But Glos refuses to accept a further reduction, arguing it would be detrimental to German industry.
Should push comes to shove, Glos is prepared to take the European Commission to court over the issue. Glos's assistant Joachim Wuermeling announced that Berlin is preparing its legal complaint. The announcement provoked an unenthusiastic response from the Environmental Ministry, which characterized it as "presumptuous."
Tough decisions
But the hardest test for the ability of the two ministries to cooperate is yet to come. The decision must be taken this year as to whether or not to extend the running times of the two nuclear power plants Biblis A and Neckarwestheim I. Shortly before the end of last year, the two energy providers RWE and EnBW requested such an extension from the Environmental Ministry. Now Gabriel has to decide whether or not he wants to approve the requests. Glos insists he has a say in the matter, but Gabriel disagrees.
Glos and the Christian Democrats aren't giving up. Some strategists in the SPD are afraid popular opinion in Germany could shift in favor of nuclear energy. Many new nuclear reactors are being built in other countries.
The major energy providers are following the political debates over nuclear energy, greenhouse gas emissions and supply security with remarkable nonchalance. The top managers are sure Barroso's plan will be significantly changed before being approved at the EU summit of state and government leaders in March.
Energy provider RWE claims that Chancellor Merkel and France will prevent the separation of networks and production. Such an encroachment on property rights involves many "legal insecurities," managers believe.
The optimism in Essen is well founded. Just like Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier , Merkel is opposed to the complete separation of energy networks and energy production. But the chancellor and her staff are hoping they won't even have to address the matter in Brussels. The French, who want to protect their major energy provider EDF, will take care of that, sources say.
But Merkel remains dependent on German energy providers if she wants to work out a comprehensive energy policy this year. And they never seem to tire of pointing that out.
For her part, Chancellor Merkel has repeatedly stated she would like to place an emphasis on cooperation. She's already invited the electricity CEOs and other representatives of the industry, as well as politicians and experts, to "energy summits" twice. The next meeting is scheduled for March. "We want to arrive at a successful conclusion," sources from within the chancellery say.
Germany's environmental minister takes the same view. "We need a basic consensus on climate and energy policy," Gabriel says. That's why he's calling for a "consensus dialogue" on energy policy, to be held even before the next official meeting. "I'm in favor of the federal government sitting down at a table with the main energy providers as quickly as possible. The era of energy oligopolies has to be overcome."
There's just one issue Gabriel is not willing to negotiate: "When it comes to nuclear energy, the chancellor's word stands," he says, adding "Pacta sunt servanda" -- pacts are to be observed.