Interview: "Just give us a little time" - DER SPIEGEL
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Interview "Just give us a little time"

The British special representative to Iraq, Sir Jeremy Greenstock, talks about setbacks in the security situation and progress in the reconstruction of Iraq
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SPIEGEL:

After the war in Kuwait, the current US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, warned that it could take years to find an Iraqi Thomas Jefferson, someone who could establish a viable democracy. Wasn't he right?

Greenstock: Who knows? After all, no one foresaw that the American revolution would produce a Thomas Jefferson. So far, the Iraqis have not had the freedom to develop democratic principles. How should such a leadership figure be found when this region has not seen a head of state for centuries who has ruled with a mandate of the people? We should wait to see whether the political progress that has now been put into motion can produce such a politician. I am optimistic in this regard.

SPIEGEL: But you are also in the minority. Many Iraqis criticize the Iraqi Council installed by the occupying powers for its lack of legitimacy.

Greenstock: That is correct. But this council is simply our administrative partner in the transition process. It was appointed solely for this purpose. To become a germ of hope for the future, it would have to obtain the approval of the people ...

SPIEGEL: ... which it does not have at this point.

Greenstock: Power must come from the people. When the Iraqis elect someone else, this council could also disappear.

SPIEGEL: Meanwhile, your political creation is rejecting the authority of the occupying powers. For example, the Council is completely opposed to the deployment of Turkish troops. It also supports the reintroduction of the death penalty, to which your fellow Britons are opposed.

Greenstock: We listen to the objections of the Governing Council and we will also take them into account. The Americans have no objection to the death penalty, but this is something that is prohibited in the European Union, and we cannot ignore this here. We are responsible for the period between now and a time of Iraqi sovereignty. If, at that point, the Iraqis decide differently, it will be their business. Until then the death penalty will remain suspended.

As far as the issue of Turkish troops is concerned, we should wait to see how it resolves itself.

SPIEGEL: When will there be a constitution? When will there be elections, and when will full sovereignty be given to the Iraqis?

Greenstock: Such target dates must be set by the Governing Council and approved by the coalition authority. In any case, as soon as possible. How the process will move forward is clear: first a constitution, then possibly a referendum on the constitution, then national elections and the assumption of responsibility by an Iraqi government. We certainly expect it to take six months until there is a constitution, and at least another six months until carefully prepared elections can be held. Although it will be very difficult to complete this entire process within less than one year, we also do not want it to take more than a year.

SPIEGEL: Many Iraqis would like to see the process take place in precisely the opposite direction, that is, that a constitutional convention would be legitimized through elections.

Greenstock: Elections on which basis? Within which constituency? For which offices? We would have needed at least 18 months to clarify such issues. If we could expect that the occupying forces would be tolerated until well into 2005, this approach could possibly be appropriate. But that is precisely what we cannot expect.

SPIEGEL: That was expressed rather cautiously.

Greenstock: Not at all. In fact, most Iraqis seem to agree that the coalition forces are gaining control over the security situation. However, they also do not wish to see them remain a single day longer than is absolutely necessary.

SPIEGEL: And how long would that be?

Greenstock: The presence of American and British troops will certainly be necessary for some time to come. But once an Iraqi government has assumed control, this presence will be the result of a jointly negotiated agreement and not by order of the coalition powers. We would like to see this transformation occur as quickly as possible. However, it may not bring about greater instability. There are simply too many Saddam supporters out there, and Saddam also remains at large ...

SPIEGEL: ... which lends a unique dynamic to the current chaos.

Greenstock: I do not wish to deny the problem. There are terrorists. Moreover, the various groups are threatening one another, and we should not underestimate these rivalries. And then there are problems with integration of the Kurds. In addition, a decision must be reached as to whether Iraq is to become a secular or a religious society in future, although I am convinced that most Iraqis want a secular government. All of these problems must be solved before elections can take place.

SPIEGEL: The international donor conference, which is decide on aid for Iraq, is currently underway in Madrid. Do you believe that the UN resolution accomplished by the United States is helpful?

Greenstock: It will not necessarily ensure that new troops are deployed to the country. Those who wish to come will come, with or without a resolution. I do not believe that the resolution will make a particularly great difference in terms of the work itself. What is important, however, is that the resolution calls upon the Governing Council to establish its own timetable.

SPIEGEL: The Europeans have agreed to provide about 200 million Euros in reconstruction aid. Many Iraqis are very disappointed by this figure.

Greenstock: We should wait to see what really happens in Madrid. As a European, I would also be disappointed - though not surprised - if it were to remain at that. Of course, I do hope for much more substantial aid from Europe at a later point, once the political disputes between the US and parts of the continent have been set aside.

SPIEGEL: Are you in fact satisfied with the current political development of Iraq, or had you hoped to be further along six months after Saddams' ouster?

Greenstock: No, on the contrary. I had not expected that we would be so far along by this point. One can certainly say that Paul Bremer has truly achieved miracles in his efforts to bring new economic life to Iraq.

SPIEGEL: Where are they?

Greenstock: Of course, the media focuses on things that go wrong, and we must accept that. But if you take a look at the statistics - power, water, the reopened schools and universities, street commerce, the bazaar, the new money being distributed - you have to admit that this man has accomplished something. There is also a greater sense of security.

SPIEGEL: You can't be serious.

Greenstock: You must consider the situation throughout the entire country. If all you see are the bombs exploding in Baghdad, the attacks in the triangle northwest of Baghdad where Baath Party loyalists are still causing trouble, of course you will conclude that this is nothing but pure chaos. You are certainly entitled to see things from that perspective, but it's a subjective way of looking at things.

SPIEGEL: Nevertheless, the country is hanging by a shoestring. You continue to pay Saddam's army, Saddam's ministries, and even former functionaries of the Baath party. 60 percent of the people are dependent on food distribution. This is certainly not a way for the country to get back on its feet economically.

Greenstock: That is correct, and that's precisely why we have introduced employment development programs. That's why the American construction companies are awarding a large percentage of their contracts to Iraqi subcontractors. Of course, we cannot eliminate a 60 percent unemployment rate within a few months. Just give us a little time. At present the Iraqis are still dependent on aid.

SPIEGEL: The "Oil for Food" program expires next month. What will happen then?

Greenstock: Then the coalition authority will assume responsibility for the distribution of food. The Iraqi public will not notice any change, however, because Iraqis are already in charge of distribution today.

SPIEGEL: In which form and within which timeframe will revenues from oil production be used for reconstruction?

Greenstock: We plan to achieve a pumping rate of two million barrels a day by the end of the year, which will translate into revenues of about five billion dollars for 2003. In 2004, we plan to raise production to three million barrels, which, depending oil prices, will bring in about 12 to 14 billion dollars in revenue.

A rate of about six million barrels a day is achievable in the long term, but that will probably take a good five years, and will certainly not come about without any problems. Many Iraqis still view the process of economic reconstruction with great mistrust. This is understandable, and so far we have simply been unable to gain the trust of the Iraqi population. Most importantly, however, the security situation is in urgent need of improvement in some regions. We are working on it.

SPIEGEL: Before the war, there were bitter discussions on whether there could be any room for French and Russian interests in the future. Have any decisions been made in this regard?

Greenstock: No, it's too early for that. When the Iraqis begin to develop the structure of their oil industry, they will certainly invite serious investors from all over. Why should this exclude the French and the Russians?

SPIEGEL: So no punishment for insubordinate behavior?

Greenstock: I have never heard the word punishment spoken in this building. You will probably have to go to Washington to hear that word.

SPIEGEL: You yourself have said that there will be no investment without security. After six months, there are still about 20 attacks on the coalition every day, and the number appears to be increasing. Did you expect this?

Greenstock: Yes. This does not surprise us. About 80 percent of the incidents take place in Baghdad and northwest of Baghdad. Only one to two percent occur in the Basra region, where the British are stationed. Of course, this does not mean that we Britons are better than the Americans. We were simply a little cleverer in picking a region with a more homogeneous population than in the American sector, where the Saddam loyalists and other terrorists are still active. The Americans chose the most difficult job.

SPIEGEL: The US press is filled with talk of the proverbial morass that threatens to engulf the coalition troops.

Greenstock: I certainly do not intend to deny that the difficulties will continue. However, you should consider the Iraqization of the security situation. A total of 48,000 Iraqi police officers already patrol the streets of the entire country. We want to involve as many countries as possible in their training. However, we do require that their training courses take place in Iraq, or in Jordan at best.

SPIEGEL: But the new police force has also become a target of the attackers, as the attack on a Baghdad police station demonstrates. And now the political leaders in the country are forming their own militias...

Greenstock: ... which we must bring under control and integrate into the security forces. In general, the Iraqization of the security situation makes life difficult for the attackers, because they are forced to attack Iraqis.

SPIEGEL: But this doesn't seem to bother you. In the suicide attack on the well-secured Hotel Baghdad, the only victims were Iraqis.

Greenstock: Don't forget that these are brutal people who commit these attacks.

SPIEGEL: Your colleague Bremer seems to be having great difficulties with the fact that all kinds of people are streaming into the country now to attack the Americans, including Al Qaeda terrorists. How in fact do you intend to secure Iraq's porous borders?

Greenstock: Securing the borders must have top priority. This undoubtedly represents an enormous gap in security, and it is impossible to control. In any case, we must monitor and stop the flow of weapons coming into the country. This remains a hopeless task at present, because there is simply too much.

INTERVIEW: HANS HOYNG, BERNHARD ZAND

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan