It's an expensive phone call, and the line is usually busy. But for many Iraqis, the message they hear when they dial 0088/216/65501724 is worth both the money they spend on the call and the time they spend waiting to get through.When Iraqis dial and manage to get connected to this satellite telephone number, which has been publicized throughout the country, they hear the voice of a man who calls himself Sheikh Ali, an impatient man from the holy city of Najaf. He's a member of the staff of Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites.They always ask Sheikh Ali the same question: "Who should we vote for?" His response is always the same: "One – six – nine. Understood? List one – six – nine! The Alliance!"There had been some confusion over whether Sistani had declared that voting is a religious obligation or whether he was expressly calling upon Shiites to vote for the "United Iraqi Alliance," the so-called Shia list. That confusion has since been cleared up: Both recommendations apply, and hardly anyone doubts that on Sunday, Jan. 30, 2005, during the first open election in modern Iraq, millions of Shiites will heed his call.Even those who choose not to call in to hear Sheikh Ali's election advice will find it difficult to escape the Alliance's massive propaganda campaign. The Alliance's posters displaying its trademark image of a candle dominate the campaign landscape, especially in the cities of southern Iraq where most Shiites, who make up about 60 percent of the population, live. Western diplomats predict that the Shiite alliance will garner about 35 percent of the vote, and the candidates at the top of its ticket are almost guaranteed seats in Iraq's new national assembly.However, the outcome of the election is no longer as clear as had been predicted only a few weeks ago. Alongside the Shiite alliance, with its guaranteed victory in the south, and the campaign alliance formed by the two leading Kurdish parties in the north, an unexpectedly strong third group has established itself since the beginning of the year -- the "Iraqi list" of interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi.Allawi's riseInitially dismissed as a puppet of the United States, which put him into office last June, Allawi has meanwhile managed to significantly boost his profile. More than any of his competitors, he has demonstrated a knack for using the media, especially the influential Dubai-based satellite network Al-Arabiya, which has been featuring him in a series of interviews in recent weeks -- at times in a formal setting, with Allawi the statesman wearing a suit and tie, and at times in fireside chats portraying him as an amiable private citizen.Paradoxically, the persistently explosive security situation in Iraq, the growing energy crisis and the virtually complete election boycott by Sunni parties could increase Allawi's chances in the upcoming election. When the current wave of violence began, he was consistently portrayed as a leader prepared to rush to the site of every attack to call upon ordinary Iraqis to defy the insurgents. But now Allawi himself has become a target.At least 69 people lost their lives in last week's suicide bombings, including 14 Shiites who died on Friday, the climax of the Islamic Feast of the Sacrifice. Terrorist leader Abu Mussab Al-Zarqawi has announced that the war could "last months and even years." "Our battle with the enemy has many tactical options, both defensive and offensive," he said, adding that such wars are not decided in days or weeks."What kind of jihad is this?," asked a nurse in a Baghdad maternity clinic after a car bomb was detonated in front of the building. "Is this now a holy war against mothers and babies?"Baghdad has been facing a water shortage since last week's act of sabotage against the Karch water works. Since December, the black market price for a liter of gasoline has jumped from 200 to 1500 dinars (about a euro), and lines stretching for miles at state-owned gas stations have become the norm. Despite the risk of terrorism, women are once again driving the waiting cars, as families forced to wait up to twelve hours to fill their tanks take turns sharing the risk."Until now, Allawi has lacked the power to improve anything in the country," says a diplomat in Baghdad. "At the same time, however, he has repeatedly made it clear that he will employ every means at his disposal once he comes into power." The carefully managed image of the strong man (because of his ruthlessness, even Allawi's American friends are now calling him "Saddam light") appeals to a broad cross-section of the Iraqi population, especially to those Sunnis who plan to vote, but whose preferred parties are boycotting the election."I will vote for Allawi," says construction contractor Rashid Hummadi, who lives in Baghdad's predominantly Sunni Adhamiya neighborhood. He has no other choice. He rejects the "black turbans" on the Shiite list, and he believes that the secular party of the Sunnis and of former foreign minister Adnan Pachachi is too weak.In contrast, Hummadi's neighbor, Abd Al-Ilah Muhji Al-Din, plans to close his cosmetics shop and move to Amman, Jordan before the election. He has already obtained visas for himself and his family. Because he doesn't have the money to fly his family to Amman, Al-Din prefers to risk taking the dangerous land route through Fallujah and Ramadi over remaining in Baghdad and waiting for the escalation in violation many fear will consume the Iraqi capital after the election.Hopes fade in BasraEven in the south, a part of Iraq previously left unscathed by the insurgency and terror afflicting the Sunni triangle, hopes that the expected Shiite victory will bring about a change for the better in post-war Iraq are beginning to dissipate. "For months," says Muwaffak Al-Rifai of the weekly publication Al-Manara, "we had no significant attacks here in Basra. But if this city is still having trouble getting on its feet today, how can anyone be so sure that a Shiite-led government will be able to bring about a change for the better?"Before the 1980 Iraq-Iran war, Iraq's third-largest city was a flourishing metropolis. Now, two years after the ouster of Saddam Hussein, Basra is in as depressing a state as it was when Saddam was still in power. January's heavy rains have left several feet of water covering many of the sites that were excavated for the construction of factories, apartment and office buildings. The sewage culverts in downtown Basra are filled with rotting garbage, and the city's ground water supply is contaminated."Men have come into power here," says Rifai, "who are less devoted to Iraq than to our neighbor to the east." He prefers not to mention Iran by name. Jan. 30, a day on which both the national assembly in Baghdad and the parliaments of Iraq's 18 provinces will be elected, is likely to further solidify the mullahs' hold over southern Iraq. "After the election, they will find many men who will not be given their positions because they are effective, but because of their services while exiled in Iran." He's referring to men like Hussein Al-Battat and Salim Al-Husseini, the Basra representatives of the "Supreme Islamic Revolutionary Council" and the Shiite Daawa Party, respectively. Both men lived in Iran for almost 20 years and were members of resistance movements seeking to overthrow Saddam.Although the Shiite election alliance's victory in Basra is merely a formality, Husseini prefers to err on the side of caution. "The Iranian model is not necessarily the best thing for Iraq," he says, although he believes that the new Iraqi constitution ought to be based on the principles of Islamic law, or Sharia. If Husseini had his way, for example, the sale of alcohol would be unacceptable and, in the long run, every woman in Iraq would be compelled to wear a head scarf.Questions about Sunni, Kurd responses to electionWill a civil war break out if Iraq's Sunnis end up being underrepresented in the future national assembly, and if they are not given a voice in drafting the new constitution? Battat, the Islamic Revolutionary Council's man in Basra, describes a proposal for involving the Sunnis put forward by his party's leader, Hakim, who suggests using quotas, if necessary, which would be independent of the election outcome.But Battat doesn't entirely agree with Hakim's seemingly generous offer. He threatens: "Just because we haven't responded to the provocations with violence so far does not mean that we are unable to defend ourselves. Many Shiite tribal leaders are intent on getting revenge. So far, Ayatollah Sistani has been able to keep them in check."Taukif Faik, the deputy interior minister of the Kurdish regional government in northern Iraq, can also be certain of a significant victory at the polls. But he also feels confident in the power of the Peshmerga militias, which he believes are capable of upholding the independence of the Kurdish Autonomous Region. He and his fellow Kurds face an ongoing problem that the upcoming election will not only not resolve, but could possibly even aggravate: the status of the multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk, one of the most dangerous and potentially explosive legacies of the Saddam regime.For the Kurds, who yielded to their American protectors' demands for quick elections, the election for the provincial council in their region's capital comes too early. Thousands of Kurds driven out by Saddam still have been unable to return to their homeland. The outcome of the Jan. 30 election will only confirm the city's current Arab and Turkmen majority, prolonging the injustices put into place by the former regime's policy of ethnic cleansing."We cannot have fair elections," Faik complains. "Saddam murdered us and drove us out of our homes for decades, and we are supposed to bring all our people back within a few months, even though there are no houses or apartments for them."He writes down a few numbers on a sheet of paper and makes some calculations. Around 170,000 displaced Kurds are eligible to vote in Kirkuk, says Faik. He believes that the administrative reforms Saddam put in place to separate five heavily Kurdish counties from the province of Kirkuk and modify the area's demographics to favor Arabs must be reversed, a move he says was already written into law in the interim constitution enacted in June 2004.Even though their claim has yet to be implemented, the Kurds have no intention of boycotting the election. The image of separatists they have cultivated for so long prevents them from doing so. Paradoxically, this has now made the Kurds, the one group in Iraq long suspected of planning to secede, one of Iraq's stabilizing factors.But it’s a concession for which the Kurds expect to be repaid at some point, either by the new government in Baghdad or the Americans. "As long as Kirkuk is not Kurdish," said Kurdish leader Massud Barzani last Friday, "there will be no peace in Iraq."Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan