There are functioning democracies with no written constitutions, like Great Britain. And there are tyrants who base their rule on highly progressive but nominal constitutions -- not a few of them in the Middle East. Iraq's voters have just ratified a contentious draft constitution which will place the future government somewhere in between these two extremes. After the decades-long terror of Saddam Hussein's government, this alone is progress.

As of Tuesday, Iraq is a democracy. It's not, of course, a stable one yet -- nor is it anchored in the popular imagination. And the constitution's problematic text hides more problems than it solves. But Iraq's democracy also hasn't failed, which separates it from the myriad 'democratization' projects in other Arab countries.

There are, though, many pitfalls. An escalation of terror, a full-blown civil war between the Sunnis and Shiites, or a continued exclusion of the Sunnis from the political process would all be horror scenarios that would thwart democracy in Iraq, constitution or no constitution.  

Thus, the document needs to be filled with life -- it has to be lived. It needs to become a binding, compulsory symbol for the founding of a new Iraq. This will work only if Iraqis from all parts of the country understand "democracy" as something that transcends majority rule.

No "Enthnocracy" in Iraq

The constitution almost failed: In two Sunni provinces the draft was rejected by 80 to 90 percent of voters, and if it had failed so dramatically in three, by law it would have been scrapped. The document's narrow success is a historical stroke of luck, but also a reminder that Sunnis feel impotent and ignored.

Shiites and Kurds make up almost 80 percent of Iraq's population, and they bear an important responsibility, since they have the potential to reconcile their Sunni neighbors to the new constitution. This means demonstrating in daily political life that Shiites and Kurds have more than their own good in mind -- in other words not just the sovereignty of the Kurdish north or the swift financial compensation of Shiites to the south who lost out under Saddam Hussein.

The Iraqi constitution will fail if it degenerates into brutal majortiy rule, with the largest ethnic or religious group dictating to minorities without giving them the prospect of shared power. The party system, which is so far organized almost entirely along ethno-religious lines, has to evolve quickly. Otherwise, there is a risk of violence each time power changes hands. Political decision making -- based on a complete understanding of the issues -- needs to replace special-interest lobbying for a small, ethnically-defined clientele.

Looking for wisdom

Whether the Iraqi elite has the wisdom and the sense of responsibility necessary for such a development cannot yet be known. There were times during the constitution talks when the Shiite-Kurd alliance showed little qualms about ignoring the Sunnis. The last-minute amendment -- allowing changes to the document after the referendum -- was, on the other hand, encouraging.

Changes will be necessary, and not just to soothe the Sunnis. The text has problems in a number of areas. Women's rights are massively threatened, in that marriage and inheritance disputes may be tried by a religious court. It may sound as though the constitution authors were merely throwing a bone to religious conservatives and Islamists, but it's likely -- especially in Shiite southern Iraq -- that Sharia courts will become the primary means of justice. This would put women in Iraq at a disadvantage. Already it's not a good idea for women to walk the streets of Basra wearing jeans. Iraq may be slowly moving toward democracy but it's also edging toward a conservative Islamic state. And Iran is doing what it can to help it along that path.

Another problem is the provision allowing provinces to form regional alliances -- powers that would even be allowed to maintain their own security forces. In the best case, this arrangement would lead to a sort of Iraqi National Guard. In the worst case, these security troops will become ethno-religious paramilitary forces that lay the groundwork for civil war.

The constitution gives Iraq a rulebook for the game of governance. What the country now needs are players -- far-sighted politicians dedicated to the good of the nation. But experience up to now has demonstrated that  the Middle East has greater deficiencies than a shortage of constitutions -- such politicians have been in short supply.