Tehran's Dangerous Game Iran to Resume Nuclear Research
Following repeated calls by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the end of 2005 for Israel to be removed from the Middle East, Tehran is now escalating the conflict with the West over its nuclear ambitions. On Tuesday, seals put in place by the International Atomic Energy Agency were removed from an Iranian nuclear research facility. The resumption of its nuclear efforts breaks a two-year voluntary suspension by Iran and comes on the heels of a breakdown in talks with Russia over a proposal to enrich Iranian uranium in Russia.
International reaction has been swift and unequivocal. Germany's foreign minister Franz-Walter Steinmeier spoke on Monday of "very, very ominous signals that cannot remain without consequences." The head of the IAEA Mohamed ElBaradei reiterated comments that he was running out of patience with Tehran. "The international community is running out of patience, the credibility of the verification process is at stake," ElBaradei said.
Additionally, each of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council -- the body which may additionally have to decide on possible sanctions against Iran -- has told Iran to re-suspend its nuclear activities. US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said that the United States is working closely with Russia, China, France and Britain on sending a unified message to Iran. Tehran, however, continues to insist it has a right to civilian nuclear activities and refuses to give up that right.
Despite the international outcry, it remains unclear if and when Iran may be referred to the Security Council. Germany -- part of the "European Union Three" which has taken the lead on negotiating with Iran along with Britain and France -- seems to have increased its rhetoric by demanding consequences. But both China and Russia, which could veto any Security Council move, are close economic partners with Iran. Russia is involved in Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor project and Moscow hopes the $1-billion contract will be followed by more such nuclear deals. Additionally, Russia has been busy selling defense systems and aircraft to Iran.
China, for its part, has developed an addiction to Iranian oil and gas and is unlikely to risk disrupting those supplies. The country signed a gas deal in November 2004 worth a whopping $100 billion and is in the process of negotiating an additional deal which will see that number double.
Nevertheless, both countries have joined the chorus of world voices urging Iran to reverse course. Whether they may eventually join a UN resolution remains to be seen. And how credible Iran's claims are that it is not interested in building nuclear weapons is, of course, anybody's guess.