The first Ukrainian election since the dramatic Orange Revolution in Kiev in late 2004 upset so many apple carts on Sunday that no one in the West is quite sure if the news is good. Did the revolution work, or not? Will Ukraine lean toward democracy and Europe, or toward its old oppressors in Russia? Yulia Tymoshenko, the braided prime minister who was sacked last September in a feud with President Viktor Yushchenko, did well enough to demand her job back; but the party led by Yushchenko -- poster-boy for the Orange Revolution -- came in third. This dismal showing left the villain of the Orange Revolution, the Moscow-friendly Viktor Yanokovich, in first place.

These are preliminary results -- by Monday night only about half the votes were counted. But the outlines of a new government were clear, and German papers on Tuesday were full of predictions and diagnoses of a new democracy that only 16 months ago -- when Ukrainians stood for ten days in subzero temperatures in Kiev to demand a recount of a rigged election -- had captured the imagination of Europe.

Yanokovich's party won the most seats in parliament, but that doesn't mean the man who almost stole the 2004 election will be prime minister now. The two liberal "Orange" parties -- Tymoshenko's and Yushchenko's -- could join forces to keep Yanokovich out of power. But that would mean getting along. "The personal relationship between (Yushchenko and Tymoshenko) is reportedly shattered," writes the business daily Handelsblatt, "which means he may not want to have her by his side as prime minister again." Yushchenko may want to form a coalition with his old enemy Yanokovich, which would legitimize the old, criminal, post-Soviet regime.

"The sluggish new beginning in Kiev would then come to an end," writes Handelsblatt. "(Yanokovich's party) stands for the power of the oligarchs and the clans, not for a market economy, pluralism, or civil society." The editors obviously want Yanokovich kept well away from power; they call for more support from Europe for Kiev's democratic forces. In particular, "Ukraine must be allowed to join the EU," especially since it's such a vital transit nation for natural gas and oil from the east -- not just from Russia but also central Asia. "The EU strategists who want to end membership talks for Ukraine have forgotten all this," writes Handelsblatt, "yet they go on babbling about the future of their energy policies."

Russia reminded everyone of Ukraine's importance to Europe last New Year's Eve when it shut off crucial supplies of natural gas because of a price dispute. The idea was to scare Ukrainians in the depth of a brutal winter and punish Kiev for acting so independently; but it made the governments of Europe shudder. Not that they could help. The left-leaning Berliner Zeitung points out that Ukrainians must be disillusioned by the Orange Revolution's push to the West. For one thing, last year Germany and Russia agreed to build an expensive Baltic-Sea pipeline for natural gas that left Ukraine completely out of the picture.

"The EU doesn't have much influence in Ukraine and for the time being doesn't seem to want any," the Berliner Zeitung writes. "The last year and a half must have been a bitter experience for most Ukrainians." Which may explain Yanokovich's victory, in the paper's opinion; the Orange Revolution, in that sense, is "over." Ukrainians want some muddled mixture of friendship with Russia and friendship with Europe. "Ukraine is an in-between land, important for transit," the editors write, sarcastically, "but for Europe there are run-arounds: a Baltic-Sea pipeline, for example."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung sounds more optimistic. "The parliamentary election in Ukraine is a victory for the Orange Revolution," write the editors, "independent of its results. President Yushchenko was able to keep his promise to deliver the fairest and cleanest election in the history of post-Soviet Ukraine." Period.

"At first glance the forces of the Orange Revolution seem to have lost this election," writes the Financial Times Deutschland. But "at second glance, the results are in fact a victory for the groups that led a democratic coup a year and a half ago" -- because the two "Orange" parties can form a coalition. The editors cheer a little blandly for Tymoshenko and Yushchenko to kiss and make up.

The left-wing daily Die Tageszeitung declares a victory for democracy in Ukraine, and points out that the major parties won seats according to the regions they more or less represent -- western Ukrainians voted in favor of Europe, in other words, while easterners leaned toward Russia. "That the election broke so cleanly into 'regional parties' should surprise no one," argues the paper. "But the process of building a government will demonstrate whether the new parliamentary members take their responsibilities seriously or whether the Ukrainian government will still be ruled by personal lust for power and profit."

A Strange Slumber in the Middle East

When Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had a stroke last January, ending his political career, headline writers around the world wondered if the Israeli-Palestinian peace process had also gone to sleep. When the terrorist group Hamas swept into power in the Palestinian territories three weeks later, everyone wondered how the Israeli voting public would react. The stakes had never looked higher, but Israel's elections -- which took place today -- have been a snore-fest. Sharon's new party, Kadima, looked poised to win, keeping interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in power, and German commentators on Tuesday noticed that it was the Israeli political scene which seems to be comatose.

"This is an election without enthusiasm or euphoria," writes the right-leaning Die Welt. "Israel is doing nothing less than cementing its own fate -- deciding the future of extensive settlements on the West Bank, determining the path of the separation wall and the nation's final borders." Yet suspense is lacking. Olmert has announced his position on all these issues -- he wants a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank that will probably not please Hamas and not lead to peace -- "and now he wants a mandate from the Israeli public."

The results should excite no one. "The Israeli people see only one direction," write the editors, now that Hamas is in power, "away from the Palestinians … land-for-peace has failed, the 'road map' is dead, and there's no negotiating partner in Ramallah."

As for the Palestinians themselves, writes the center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung, Hamas looks weaker and more isolated every day. "Although Hamas can form the cabinet of a new Palestinian government," argues the paper, "the radical Islamist organization has been paralyzed by the stench of its own victory." Israel isn't the only nation that refuses to deal with Hamas; most of the Middle East -- except Iran -- has ostracized the party. Hamas, for example, has been disinvited from this year's Arab Summit, which opened today in Sudan. "Neither (Egyptian President) Mubarak nor his Arab colleagues has an interest in legitimizing the freely-elected Islamists," writes the paper.