The World from Berlin: A Turning Point in Qana - DER SPIEGEL
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The World from Berlin A Turning Point in Qana

At the start of Israel's siege on militants in Lebanon, world opinion tilted toward Jerusalem -- even some Arab governments made hushed noises against Hezbollah. But after an attack on a Lebanese village killed over 50 civilians on Sunday, that honeymoon is well and truly over, writes the German press.
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The deadly strike on the village of Qana on Sunday by Israeli planes has marked a sea-change in the almost three-week war in Lebanon: Not only did Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora publicly disinvite Condoleezza Rice to Beirut for peace talks; not only did Lebanese protesters smash windows at the UN building in Beirut; now world opinion seems to have shifted against Israel, and the violence threatens to hand Hezbollah militants a propaganda coup.

Just after midnight on Monday morning Israel announced a suspension of hostilities  for 48 hours, hoping to assess the civilian death toll as well as the damage to its mission in Lebanon. At least 56 people died in the raid, including 37 children. Israel said it was unaware civilians were in the basement of a building when its planes bombed the village. But the strike outraged Lebanese people who remember a similar attack in Qana ten years ago, when Israel bombed a UN compound there during its so-called "Grapes of Wrath" operation, killing 102 civilians. "Qana was already a powerful symbol in the Arab world," said Hazem Amin, a Lebanese editor at the Beirut-based pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat, "and it is only going to grow in importance."

German editorial pages on Monday unanimously argue that the war has moved into a dangerous and perhaps unwinnable phase. The right-wing daily Die Welt suspects that Israel's military "doesn't know which strategy to take. It attacks, then it retreats." The lack of strategy leads to politically "tragic mistakes," and even an "immediate ceasefire" now may give the terrorists a "world-shuddering victory -- a victory which would also be expensive for us (in Europe)."

News of the 48-hour bombing suspension came too late for this morning's papers, so any reference to a ceasefire is on the editorial pages is hypothetical. But the left-wing daily Die Tageszeitung argues that it's now too late for a sudden peace. "The call for an immediate cease-fire -- in contrast to the calls for cease-fire in 1996 -- will only have a limited effect," the commentator writes. "An immediate unconditional cease-fire will be the same as a victory for Hezbollah." The paper argues that Israel and the US have already lost "on the field of diplomacy," and that absent a quick military success, "Qana in 2006 will be what Qana in 1996 became: the writing on the wall that led to Israel's retreat from Lebanon."

The Financial Times Deutschland thinks Israel's military success in Lebanon "has been unimpressive so far," and agrees with other papers that a retreat or a cease-fire will do no good. The last time Israel retreated from Lebanon, in 2000, it was "celebrated as a triumph for Hezbollah, and established its mythic status. As everyone can see, it didn't serve the cause of peace." The paper isn't optimistic about continued fighting, either, because the violence has already hurt Israel's standing as a diplomatic negotiator. "The unprecedented criticism that Arab governments from Egypt to Saudi Arabia expressed against Hezbollah at the start of the current war has gone mute again." Although many leaders in the Middle East hate the idea of Iran spreading its influence through Hezbollah, the paper writes, now they have to show "solidarity" with the Lebanese.

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung thinks the only way out of the crisis will be a series of (unpalatable) talks with one of the main behind-the-scenes players. "It may be high time to deal with Syria," write the editors. "… The taming of Hezbollah, which Lebanon can't accomplish alone, is unimaginable without" the Syrian government. Israel, and presumably its friends in Europe and Washington, will need to "sound out what political price (Syrian President) Bashar Assad now requires for brokering a ceasefire and restraining Hezbollah over the long term."

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung believes Israel had a legitimate chance for a negotiated peace at the start of the current conflict, but now most of the opportunity has been "gambled away." The "auspicious moment for moderate forces within Lebanon to win influence at the UN," the paper writes, "is gone." But the commentator thinks the "seeds" for a political solution -- removal of Syrian influence from Lebanon, disarmament of Hezbollah -- can still be sown. The remaining hope still lies in the low opinion most of the world has of Hezbollah, including neighboring Sunni governments, which Israel shouldn't "squander." "There is still time," writes the paper, "for (Israel's) American patrons to explain this connection," to the leaders in Jerusalem, meaning "it's not too late" for peace.

-- Michael Scott Moore, 12:30 CET

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