The World from Berlin Commander Prodi without an Army
Romano Prodi steered his campaign to a narrow margin of victory in Italy this week, with official results showing the former European Commission President as winning the tightly contested election. But on Tuesday, speaking publicly for the first time since the poll, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi refused to concede defeat.
Citing his political rival's thin lead, some 40,000 contested votes and a half million ballots that were blank and nullified in the count, Berlusconi said it was too early to state any final results. "We cannot recognize the outcome of a vote until there is a definitive, clear judgement," he said. "Until that day, no one can say they have won."
Still, it appeared clear that Prodi had beat his conservative opponent and that his center-left l'Unione alliance -- despite its anemic majority -- would soon create a new government.
Reflecting on the outcome on Wednesday, German editorialists see an Italy that is deeply and equally divided between the left and the right. And with infighting and a fragile majority, they don't express a whole lot of faith in Prodi's ability to turn around a country that has become the new "sick man" of Europe .
The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung looks to the election results with dismay, noting that Prodi's victory is so narrow that it has opened the door for demands by Berlusconi's center-right coalition for recounts and allegations of technical problems. And until Prodi is officially named prime minister by President Carlo Ciampi, the bickering may serve only to further divide Italians. The political impasse could also make it difficult to select a new president to succeed Ciampi when his term ends in May. On the other hand, that process could also "present an opportunity to begin a national compromise between the left and right that is desperately needed in the interest of democracy in Italy." But for that compromise to happen, the FAZ warns, the two political groups must "cease with their mutual demonization of one-another." The paper sees dark skies ahead. Prodi may position himself above any internal squabbling within his left coalition as a show of unity. But he will still have trouble controlling them -- if the going gets tough, "profile is more important to some of these smaller parties than success." So how is the unity he is promising supposed to happen? Prodi, the paper concludes, is a "commander without his own party troops."
The leftist Die Tageszeitung, which normally represents the opposite side of the political spectrum, weighs in with a similar view. Prodi, the paper warns, could soon emerge as a winner whose wings have been clipped. After all, he has only a two-seat advantage in the Senate. "That wouldn't be a problem if he had a cohesive coalition," it explains, "but despite its promising name, the 'L'Unione' is anything but. Instead of unity, the ranks of the center-left force are mostly driven by jealous and discord." The paper notes that the same alliance ruled from 1996 to 2001 with just a tiny majority. But the coalition fought non-stop internecine battles until it was abandoned by voters. On Tuesday, Prodi promised to remain prime minister for five years. "But that will only be possible if the smaller party chiefs have learned the lesson that their own profile within the coalition isn't the top priority. As it stands, Prodi has no means of enforcing obedience and he can be blackmailed by even the smallest parties in his coalition. He can only hope that his coalition realizes that its collapse would mean a quick return to power for Italy's right," the paper concludes.
The conservative Die Welt writes that the only thing certain abut this close election is that the Italians "haven't made any radical shift -- there has been no landslide, no tipping of the scales of history in the opposite direction." The paper argues that neither Prodi nor Berlusconi offered anything in their campaigns that could help Italy in this time of great social upheaval that is being caused by globalization. For his part, Berlusconi, a vulgar and uninhibited clown once again brought out his "you can be rich like me" slogan. Meanwhile, Prodi promised "justice, social harmony and peace," -- slogans from a bygone era that won't return in a period of turbulent globalization that not even the businessman Berlusconi has been able to control. At the end of the day, the paper argues, "one would have to look into a crystal ball to try to guess what, exactly, a Prodi government will be able to accomplish with its extremely narrow majority."
Switzerland's Neue Zürcher Zeitung even goes so far as to describe Prodi's victory as a "pyrrhic" one. "The effective winner is greater instability," the paper opines. In many respects, Prodi's center-left alliance is only celebrating what appears to be a victory. Its future power base could well be precarious and instable given the tiny margin of victory. "The election result was even more disappointing for Prodi because it precipitated a further slide to the left within his camp that threatened to cause additional instability." By losing by only a small percentage, Berlusconi will remain as a "central, crystallizing force in Italian politics." The paper also fears that Italy will be more concerned about Berlusconi's remarkable media power and his eternal legal problems than with the need for reforms.
The only paper that seemed to celebrate Berlusconi's exit from office is the center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung -- but they don't seem to be opening the champagne in Munich, either. "Prodi has shown that even in a "television democracy, content can still beat form," the paper writes. "And that's good news for Italy." The bad news? "One out of two Italians voted for a man who would be unelectable in any other democracy -- and not only because of his deficient governing capabilities." Berlusconi shamelessly used the media empire he owns in his campaign, flooding the country with images of himself and presenting himself in a promotional light in his own television channels. So what was the attraction? His wealth, his success, his vitality, his optimism or the attitudes of the anti-politician? The answer is all of these things. Many Italians read few books or newspapers, but they do live on a steady diet of Berlusconi's TV stations and were more than happy to vote for him. In the end, however, they didn't represent enough votes to keep him in office. "This election wasn't really about the left or the right," the paper concludes. "It had more to do with preserving parliamentary democracy. And that alone required voting Berlusconi out of office. This man is a buccaneer in the right-wing camp who corrodes rather than protects Italy's interests."
-- Daryl Lindsey, 2 p.m. CET