The World From Berlin Disengagement or Escapism?
Center-left politician Ehud Olmert's election as prime minister of Israel heralds the continuation of several policies associated with former Prime Minister Sharon, such as disengagement from the occupied territories and expansion of the so-called security fence. In part, Olmert's victory reflects a loss of faith in the peace process -- sped on no doubt by the recent electoral victory of Hamas in the Palestinian territories. Yet the fact that Olmert received far fewer votes than he had hoped for, winning the elections only marginally, also means that many of his policies may still have to be revised or even abandoned as he negotiates with possible coalition partners as well as the members of the Middle East Quartet (the US, Russia, the EU, and the UN).
German-language papers are commenting extensively on the election results this week, speculating on how much of his program Olmert will be able to put into place and what his victory says about emergent trends in Israeli society.
An editorial in the influential Swiss daily Neue Zürcher Zeitung begins by pointing out that Olmert's victory was less than dramatic in terms of the number of votes he received; his party now holds 28 seats in parliament, when as many as 40 had seemed within reach only a few weeks ago. The paper's editors speculate which parties Olmert will seek a coalition with -- the Sephardic Shas Party perhaps, or the left-wing Meretz Party of peace activist Yossi Beilin? The editors are confident that Olmert will succeed in finding coalition partners that agree on a number of overarching issues such as the dissolution of settlements in the West Bank.
The paper also argues that while decisions over negotiations with the Palestinians depend largely on power relationships within the Knesset, the question of whether Olmert will be able to carry through his plans to expand the Ma'aleh Adumim settlement near Jerusalem depends largely on international opinion. "No doubt Olmert won't be able to realize these plans against the will of the United States and the other members of the Middle East Quartet." In the end, the paper's editors suggest, pulling out from the West Bank is the one proposal Olmert will almost certainly not have to shelve or revise: "It's clear that those groups who reject a further dismantling of settlements in the occupied territories due to ideological, religious, or tactical considerations can no longer mobilize majority support in the Knesset."
"The most striking thing about these elections was the level of boredom," begins an editorial in the center-left daily Süddeutsche Zeitung. Still, While these are the fourth elections Israel has seen in only seven years and voter turnout was low, something fundamental has changed: during this last electoral campaign, the word "peace" was strikingly absent. "After the agreements of Oslo, Madrid, Camp David, and Wye, everyone now recognizes the fact that the Israelis and the Palestinians are not meant for peaceful co-existence -- at least right now." In other words, "the Israelis have not just voted Olmert into parliament; they've also voted against peace." The editors interpret the outcome of Tuesday's election as "the beginning of unilateralism in the Middle East conflict." If Hamas continues to call for the destruction of Israel while Israel pursues its strategy of disengagement, then in effect, the editors write, "neither side wants to have anything to with the other any longer." The result, the editors predict, will be the prolongation of a low-intensity conflict. While Israel's withdrawal from the West Bank will win Olmert the international support he needs to remain in power, the annexation and even expansion of some settlements will continue to "split up the Palestinian territories and continue to make a functioning Palestinian state an impossibity." The editors conclude: "There can therefore be no question of peace."
A commentary in Germany's conservative daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung interprets the election results as expressing a strong desire on the part of Israelis to have no more to do with the Palestinians than absolutely necessary: "Israel Withdraws" is the title of the piece, which interprets the election results as announcing an "inward turn" by Israel -- a concentration on domestic issues, particularly social issues, made possible by the relative quiet that has resulted from the construction of the so-called security fence. "Despite missile attacks from Gaza, numerous terror warnings, and the victory of Hamas," the commentator writes, "Israel has gotten so used to this relative quiet that social questions may become the dominant political issue for the first time."
The high number of votes received by Israel's Pensioners' Party is another story, according to the commentator: "The triumph of this party," he writes, "can only be explained by the fact that many Israeli citizens refused to take this election seriously." Low voter turnout is interpreted as a symptom of a general loss of interest. But there is another looming, if rarely discussed, issue: the existence of a large group of Israeli Arabs "who were hardly mentioned in the papers during the electoral campaigns, and who don't appear in any of the speculations about the various forms the new government coalition may take." Some twenty percent of the Israeli population is Arab, the commentator points out, but they are represented with only ten seats in the Knesset. In light of the emergence of a massive and potentially pro-Palestinian sector of the Israeli population, Olmert will eventually have to overcome his refusal to negotiate with Hamas, the commentator argues. Israel's policy of withdrawal may then simply turn out to be unrealistic: "Olmert says Israel should withdraw and turn inward," the commentator writes. "He doesn't just mean disengagement from the occupied territories, but also avoidance of conflict in general. That could turn out to be wishful thinking."