The World From Berlin: The Coming Confrontation with Iran - DER SPIEGEL
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The World From Berlin The Coming Confrontation with Iran

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remains defiant despite a looming UN deadline over the country's uranium enrichment program. But can the Security Council agree on what to do about it?
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Iran has made clear that it will not be cowed by this week's deadline set by the UN Security Council for the country to halt its controversial uranium enrichment. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday said his country would not "bow to threats and ultimatums" at a press conference  in Tehran.

Ahmadinejad's tough talk got a predictably chilly reception from Washington, which is pushing for a tough response should Tehran not comply. "They have until the 31st of August, but we've made it very clear unless we get an unequivocal acceptance of that condition in the Security Council resolution, that sanctions would follow," US Ambassador to the United Nation John Bolton said.

The UN Security Council has given Iran until Thursday to suspend uranium enrichment for its controversial nuclear program or face possible consequences. While the West is concerned Tehran wants to make nuclear weapons, Iran claims it only wants to develop a civilian atomic energy program.

Tehran has said it is ready for "serious negotiations" to solve the nuclear dispute, however, many in Washington and elsewhere in the West are convinced the Iranians are simply hoping to create divisions within the Security Council. Both China and Russia are seen as being reluctant to harm their considerable economic interests in Iran by slapping harsh sanctions on Tehran.

With the deadline looming, German papers on Wednesday explore the repercussions for what seems to be an inevitable standoff between Iran and the international community.

The business daily Handelsblatt devotes a full page of coverage to the economic aspects of the political decisions to be played out in the Security Council. The paper makes clear that Council members France, China and Russia -- as well as Germany -- all have sizable business interests in Iran. None of them will gladly slap sanctions on Iran, as the United States is so keenly urging. But in a separate editorial, the paper is skeptical that Tehran has much to fear any time soon. "How the possible sanctions would finally end up looking would have to be discussed first by the UN Security Council again. And sorting out the details amongst the protagonists there is widely known to be difficult." The paper closes by saying right now it's completely open whether Russia and China are willing to sacrifice their economic interests to punish Iran.

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes that the UN Security Council has put itself in a difficult position over the nuclear dispute since Tehran clearly refuses to halt its uranium enrichment program. "The calculation of the West that putting the Iranian leadership under pressure to comply with a resolution has failed as to be expected," opines the paper. "If the Security Council wants to remain credible it has no other choice then to now discuss sanctions." But that won't be easy -- whereas the United States is pushing for action, Russia and China remain reluctant. "They always were and now after the Iranian offer for talks they will certainly demand a chance to negotiate with Tehran."

The conservative daily Die Welt believes Ahmadinejad's defiance betrays his ultimate goals: "The Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has chosen confrontation. He hasn't opted for the civilian use of atomic energy -- he wants a nuclear bomb. His rejection of the broad offer from the UN Security Council allows no other interpretation." The consequences, argues the paper, are particularly worrying. "Iran is pushing the world into a conflict that will make the war in Afghanistan look like a skirmish." Estimating Tehran will need another three years before it can build a bomb, Die Welt writes there is still time for diplomacy, however, "the time for sanctions has come" and convincing both Russia and China to support action against Iran isn't as impossible as Ahmadinejad believes. "It must be made clear to Ahmadinejad that that an Iran with nuclear weapons will lead to its downfall."

The left-wing Berliner Zeitung is equally pessimistic, however, the newspaper ads a dose of conspiracy theory to its editorial. Writing that Iran and the United States are marching "hand in hand to war," the paper describes the dangers posed by Ahmadinejad, a man "suffering from megalomania and a loss of reality," and the conservative politicians in control in Washington committed to "ridding the world of evil." While Iran continues to hope Russia and China will shield it from harsh sanctions, the paper believes Washington is cynically waiting for Tehran to turn the dispute into a military conflict. The editorial closes with rather novel theory that America's strong support of Israel's recent campaign in Lebanon was actually only a pretense to pave the way for war with Iran. "That was the way to have the opponents of the Iraq war France and Germany deployed in the Lebanese border region to protect Israel and at the same time put them on the front line."

-- Marc Young, 3:30 p.m. CET