Israel

In Jerusalem's Orthodox Mea Shearim neighborhood these days, stores are offering their customers Jewish kippas with, depending on their preference, "Bush and Cheney 2004" slogans or "Kerry, Edwards." But for some time now there's been a favorite: If President George W. Bush were to run for office in Israel, his election would be certain. Even though America's traditionally liberal Jews clearly prefer Democratic challenger John Kerry, Israel's heart is beating for the incumbent. Recent polls here suggest Bush would get 56 percent of the votes compared to 15 percent for Kerry. Interestingly, Bush also looks set to be the victor among the American Jews residing in Israel who in the past have largely voted for the Democrats. In 2000, he only gained 20 percent of the votes of Israeli-Americans. This year, Republican activists believe that Bush's steadfast backing of Israeli President Ariel Sharon could tip the scales in his favor. Democrats in Israel have expressed concern about the mobilization campaign undertaken by Republicans among conservative Ultra-Orthodox Jews. For their part, Israelis like Bush because he has clearly pushed for them in the conflict with the Palestinians. He showed contempt for Yasser Arafat and made it clear to the world that terrorist attacks by Islamic groups are the world's greatest evil -- far worse than the military operations of an occupying force.

Palestinians, on the other hand, clearly support John Kerry. This is largely due to Bush's written guarantee to Israel's Sharon that the US would not require a promise in future Israel-Palestinian peace talks that Israel eliminate all of its settlements in Palestinian regions. Nor would Bush insist that the borders that existed prior to the Six Day War of 1967 be re-established. The letter angered Palestinians -- many of whom already saw Bush as the "monster" who waged war on Iraq. It's not that the Palestinians like Kerry, they just see him as the lesser of two evils.

Reported by Annette Grossbongardt in Jerusalem

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is a man who speaks his mind. And like George W. Bush, he tends to divide the world between good and evil in his mind. Politically he is also close to Bush and sent Japanese troops to Iraq. "I have a deep connection to President Bush," Koizumi recently said. "That's why I hope he perseveres." Tsutomu Takebe, the general secretary of Japan's governing Liberal Democrats went one step further, saying if someone other than Bush were to get elected in the states, Japan would have a big problem.

Under Koizumi's leadership, the world's second-biggest industrial nation has relied increasingly on the US, which provides it with protection. Indeed, outside of Washington, Tokyo doesn't have very many friends in the world. Especially amongst its Asian neighbors, the island nation is becoming increasingly isolated -- a situation attributed to its own history as an aggressive Asian power. In 2002, Koizumi paid a tribute to Japan's 2.5 million World War II dead during a visit to Tokyo's Yasukani Shrine -- a move that angered Beijing, which sees in such gestures an indication Japan does not sincerely regret its own wartime atrocities. For his provocation, the Chinese have declined to conduct bilateral summits with the Japanese leader. Ever thankful for its close ties with Washington, Japan took over the roll of Asian sheriff's aid. In 2001, Tokyo set its first war ships to the Indian Ocean since 1945 to aid in the war on terror. And more recently, as part of the "Coalition of the Willing," it sent 500 soldiers to Iraq, despite the fact that 65 percent of Japan's citizens oppose the war. A majority of Japanese citizens support Kerry.

The strongest current argument for Japan's close connection to Bush is North Korea. To protect itself from the potential nuclear threat of dictator Kim Jong Il, Koizumi has told voters, Japan can only rely on the US in the end. Besides, the Japanese have often had strained relations with Democrats in the past. In 1998, during his first visit to China, Bill Clinton did not make the obligatory stopover in Tokyo en route to Beijing that US presidents traditionally made. And from an economic perspective, Democratic US governments have been bad for Japan: Tokyo has never forgotten the bitter fight with the Clinton administration during the mid-'90s over the opening of the Japanese automobile market.

Reported by Wieland Wagner in Shanghai

France

Since the American president is now the Master of the Universe, all the people of the world should have the right to vote for the man in the White House, France-based Moroccan author Tahar Ben Jelloun recently wrote. That would undoubtedly be a gain for John Kerry. A recent poll by the Institut Louis Harris recently found 71 percent of the French supporting Kerry, with a mere 11 percent saying they would vote for George W. Bush. The preference for Kerry isn't surprising, but the scale of the partisanship is. It's not that Kerry engenders a major sense of enthusiasm among the French -- after all, for most he's an unknown commodity -- but most French are deeply uneasy about Bush's politics. A full 82 percent of the French polled by Harris believe Bush has made the world a more dangerous place.

France's opposition to Bush's military intervention in Iraq remains unbroken today. The insecurity and chaos that the US occupying force has failed to bring under control have convinced French politicians, across party lines, that the warnings against the war they issued from the beginning were correct. Worse yet, Bush's constant references to God and his division of the world between good and evil are disconcerting in secular France, where strict division exists between church and state. For its part, the French media portrays Bush's supporters as bigoted zealots who in their simple-mindedness don't understand the complexities of the world and, therefore, represent a risk for domestic and foreign peace. When it comes to Bush, the president is characterized as an obsessive obstinate or, worse, the caricature of a Texas cowboy.

French President Jacques Chirac, of course, capitalizes on this: He's the man who dares to say "no" to Bush's America. Practically intoxicated by the popularity of his foreign policies, he doesn't miss any opportunity to emphasize France's special political way. On the other hand, Kerry's election could also pose problems for Chirac. He has familial ties to France and speaks the language passably -- a trait that will go over well in winning hearts here. And of course Chirac would have no choice but to publicly welcome his election victory. But Kerry could create a dilemma for Chirac's Iraq policies because if Kerry wins, he still couldn't remove US troops from Iraq. He would likely turn to Europe -- including France and Germany -- for help that some countries don't want to supply. In that sense, a Kerry victory could turn into a Pyrrhic one.

Reported by Romain Leick in Paris

Italy

At least one European is staying true to Bush: Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's prime minister and media czar supports whatever George W. Bush wants to do. The diminutive self-made billionaire from Milan is ceaselessly proud of his big amico from Texas, who he likes to pat on the shoulder and serenade at the piano. Indeed, the four-party conservative majority in the right-leaning conservative Italian government coalition are also staunch supporters of Bush's Republican Party. If you check out the Web site of Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia, you won't find any messages critical of Bush, but you will find headlines like "Kerry in Crisis." But like so many other countries in Europe, the views of the leader don't always represent the people. "I'm hoping for the Democrats," Italian publisher Carlo De Benedetti, whose papers include La Republicca and L'Espresso, said a few days ago. Though the country is participating in the Iraq war militarily, most of its people are against it. In polls, 60 percent of Italians favor Kerry, with only 15 percent supporting Bush. Even the right-of-center Corriere della Sera has given its nod to the Democrat, writing that "a Kerry victory would be better."

That's not a judgement you would easily find in the higher echelons of the Vatican in Italy. Bush isn't well-liked there and the Pope also vehemently opposed the war in Iraq. Yet despite the fact he is a Catholic and a good churchgoer, Kerry is likewise hated in the Vatican because of his liberal abortion policies and his recognition of legal partnerships for gays. Writing about the anti-Kerry mood amongst the clerics, the American Vatican journalist Farley Clinton recently wrote: "I've never experienced anything like it."

Reported by Hans-Jürgen Schlamp in Rome

Brazil

Ideologically, Brazilian President Lula da Silva falls closer in line with Democrat John Kerry. Nevertheless, Brazil is more likely to support a victory by incumbent George W. Bush. Of course, Lula would never express his preference -- at least not officially. The reasons are purely pragmatic. In the area of trade, for example, South America's largest country fears that the US might engage in stronger protectionism if Kerry comes to power. And that could complicate exports of Brazilian agricultural and industrial products to the US -- the country's second biggest market after the European Union. Agriculture is the motor of the Brazilian economy, and farmers here fear that Kerry could link trade concessions to environmental requirements. Those fears aren't unfounded: There has never been as much clear-cutting of the Amazon virgin forests as under Lula's government. On the other hand, Bush hasn't done much to eliminate trade barriers for the South Americans either: negotiations for free trade zone that would encompass North and South America have stalled, with Brasilia and Washington laying the blame on each other.

In other areas, relations between Washington and Brasilia are tight, especially in foreign policy. Bush has supported Brazil's predominant role in the region, and Brasilia has made it possible for US troops to participate in interventions in other regions of the world. The United Nations peacekeeping force in Haiti, for example, is under Brazilian command -- a test case for Brazilian foreign policy ambitions that Washington has greeted. And though it hasn't made any commitment, the US has also reacted positively to Brazil's quest for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Additionally, Lula and Bush have much in common. Both are devout Christians and both routinely invoke God; they distrust intellectuals and follow pragmatic economic policies. Lula could have problems with a cool East Coast intellectual like Kerry.

Reported by Jens Glüsing in Rio de Janeiro

Continue to Part Two.

Africa

It would be easy to think that the entire world is focused on elections in the United States. In Africa, at least, that's not true. Sure a couple of leaders have commented on Tuesday's vote -- Nelson Mandela said of Bush, "the man can't think clearly," and the Uganda daily The Monitor wrote, "Africa ignores Kerry, but hates Bush."

In general, though, the continent is dealing with its own problems these days. In Kenya, the rainy season -- and thus malaria season -- is beginning. Thirty thousand Kenyans die each year from the disease. In Uganda, a civil war is raging -- a crisis recently referred to by the United Nations as the largest neglected conflict in the world -- and Sudan is likewise at war. The AIDS epidemic continues almost unchecked on the continent and the locust invasion this summer devastated crops in Western Africa. These are all problems that will likely be addressed by neither of the two candidates. One can't blame Africa for having little attention left over for the United States.

Despite the disinterest, however, there is one voice speaking up loud and clear: President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. "We have recently learned from our secret service that Bush and his government are planning to march into Zimbabwe as soon as they are finished in Iraq," the despot said recently.

Reported by Thilo Thielke, Nairobi

China

The Chinese take on the US elections is right down the middle. "Both (Kerry and Bush) wouldn't change much in the US-China relationship," says Jin Canrong, vice president of the Institute for International Relations at the University of Beijing. And, indeed, the Chinese government has been doing everything it can to stay out of the race, even going so far as to forbid the media from arguing for or against a specific candidate. The only break in the taboo comes from ex-foreign minister Qian Qichen. "The philosophy of the 'Bush Doctrine' is, for the most part, violence. It supports the idea that the USA should rule the entire world with its overwhelming power -- specifically with its military power," he wrote in a recent editorial.

Qichen's polemic aside, it is easy to see why China doesn't feel there is much at stake in the election. Its most important rub with the United States has consistently been the question of Taiwan. China sees it as a domestic problem whereas the United States promises to defend the island if China invades. Both Kerry and Bush agree on that policy.

Even with the Taiwan tensions, however, it is clear that, economically, America and China need each other. Both Kerry and Bush agree on that, too. Nevertheless, Kerry has indicated that he will fight what he calls "unfair" trade practices that have cost Americans jobs. But that tune is likely to change if he is elected. From Ronald Reagan's time, all candidates have talked tough on China, only to be transformed into doves after their election.