At least one can always count on a fair amount of disarray in Iran. The presidential campaign officially ended Wednesday evening, but predictions on the outcome of the election were still all over the map. Some have former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani way out in front. Other polls, however, have one of his opponents in the lead.

It's likely, in fact, that none of the candidates will receive the necessary absolute majority and that a run-off -- which would be the first in Iran's history -- will be necessary. After all, while both camps, the reformers and the conservatives, may have leading candidates -- Mostafa Moin and Rafsanjani respectively -- it is far from a two horse race. Other conservatives and reformers are also in the running.

It could turn out, however, that turn-out will be even more decisive; it appears that very few Iranians are prepared to cast their votes in Friday's poll. Indeed, even though the unclear outcome of the election points toward a free and democratic vote, the drop-off in voter interest is dramatic. As recently as 1997, some 80 percent of Iranian voters cast their ballots. But the trend has been steadily downwards since then and many believe that on Friday, fewer than 50 percent of the 46 million eligible voters will make the journey to the polling stations. If one speaks with people in Tehran, that number seems realistic.

The country is gripped by political paralysis. As lively as the campaign was -- complete with inline-skating demos, modern television spots, candidates in trendy suits and not a sign of religious dress -- it can't belie the salient fact that the real political power in the country is to be found in the Islamic clerics in the Guardian Council rather than in the parliament and the president.

Even the preparations leading up to Friday's election depended heavily on the selections made by the Council. From over 1,000 candidates, six were chosen; and reform candidates, predictably, were the first to go. Women candidates weren't even considered. Even the eventual decision to allow reform candidate Moin to run after all -- at the behest of outgoing president Mohammad Khatami -- seemed like a gesture of mercy. Moin has, in the past, enjoyed deriding the decrees from the Council as "suggestions" or "advice." That he himself can place his name on the ballot as a result of such a decree serves to highlight exactly how much power the clerics have -- and how tenuous democracy is in Iran.

Even President Khatami -- a celebrated reformer who came into office in 1997 in a landslide victory over a religious conservative -- has been unable to implement anything but the smallest changes in the Iranian power structures. The unelected members of the Islamic Council, who are appointed for life and who can veto important political decisions and who have power over defense, foreign and secret service policy, were a constant stumbling block for Khatami. There is no indication that his successor will have any better luck.

At the same time, Iran has changed dramatically under Khatami. The streets of Tehran these days resemble those of the much more permissive cities of Beirut and Amman. Against the anti-American graffiti and portraits of religious leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, western advertisements seem that much more colorful and modern. The numbers of veiled women walking the streets have declined and couples are more open with their affection than ever. But the other, old Iran is still present. A week ago, it seemed almost like a mini-revolution when a handful of women forced their way into a stadium to watch the Iranian national team play.

It is exactly these contradictions that earned Khatami the reputation of being a weak president. The reform of the country and its society is going much too slowly for many Iranians -- fully one-third of whom are under 30 years of age. Many of them have traveled abroad and the rest watch western television via satellite. But political reforms haven't moved nearly as quickly as the technological developments and the spread of the Internet. Many Iranians are asking why they should go to vote for somebody who will stumble over the exact same hurdles that prevented Khatami from making real reform progress.

Of the candidates who will be on the ballot, there are essentially only three who stand any real chance of getting elected. At the top of the heap is the multi-millionaire and influential religious leader Rafsanjani, who was president once before from 1989 to 1997. A huge trade empire and excellent contacts fueled his wealth and today the 70-year-old doesn't exactly look like someone who stands for a new Iran. He wants action rather than rhetoric, he has continually stated during his campaign. But at the same time, it appears that he is relying almost completely on his high profile. Indeed, his only campaign rallies have been held in the capital of Tehran.

Despite his commitment to change and desire to push for closer ties with the west, Rafsanjani is the very embodiment of post-Revolution Iran, not least because of his close contact with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's clique and his long term as president. His program: cutting red tape in state industries and a cautious policy of rapprochement with the United States. But he believes those improved ties should come without Iran having to give up its controversial nuclear program. Indeed, none of the candidates in the race want to stop the program, although Rafsanjani has explicitly stated he is against the development of a nuclear bomb.

The second conservative candidate with prospects for success in the race is former Tehran Police Chief Mohammed-Bagher Ghalibaf. During the campaign Ghalibaf, who is in his mid-forties, portrayed himself as a youthful politician. In him, older voters see a pure Muslim who won't shake up the current religious structures. Meanwhile, the students see him as a cool recreational pilot who understands the desires and concerns of the country's millions of youth. In a country where more and more young people are unable to find work after finishing school or training, economic improvements are a major concern for them.

The only reformer with any chance is Mostafa Moin, an academic and former minister of university education and technology. Moin has the backing of Iran's considerable population of academics. And though the inconspicuous Moin isn't the best public speaker, the reforms he has pledged are the most courageous of any candidate. He's also the only presidential candidate who has even addressed issues of human rights and women's rights. In addition, he has cautiously questioned how much power religion should have in society. Even though Iranians have grown more liberal in recent years, that line of questioning is still a dangerous move with voters.

Regardless who gets elected Friday, there won't be any sort of "Back to the Future" moment with any of these candidates. There is no going back. The changes made in recent years have been far-reaching and the people have become more demanding. The most important decision for Iranian voters is determining which candidate will be most deft in his dealings with the Guardian Council, Iran's quasi constitutional court. Khatami's successor can only succeed with the Council through a delicate political balancing act of confrontation and compromise.

Indeed, that could be Rafsanjani's decisive advantage. He's a veteran political player -- and some mullahs are already fretting over his possible election. Indeed, it was Rafsanjani who immediately and diplomatically responded to new accusations laid out in a new report from the International Atomic Energy Agency that it is further along with its nuclear program than it has revealed. Many Iranians see that move as a signal from Rafsanjani that he has the clout to speak for his country.