Photo Gallery: The Rocky Relations in the Hindu Kush
Paranoia and Conspiracy Dispatches Lay Bare Rocky US Relationship with Karzai
It is July 2009 and there are less than two months to go until the presidential election in Afghanistan. Incumbent Hamid Karzai is considered the clear favorite for a second term in office, but his relationship with the United States has turned frosty.
The president has taken to railing furiously against his political protector when talking to his own confidants, but he also doesn't hide his anger in direct talks with US representatives. The US ambassador in Kabul, Karl Eikenberry, is growing concerned and writes in a dispatch to Washington: "Karzai contended that the US had lost its purpose over the past six years," according to a dispatch from July 2009. Referring to a meeting he held with Karzai, Eikenberry wrote that he was "questioning the US commitment to a strong partnership with Afghanistan."
For Karzai, it's also a matter of personal loyalty -- the proud Pashtun leader is convinced the US has thrown its backing behind his rival Abdullah Abdullah. Karzai believes the US is looking to get rid of him.
For security reasons, the Afghan president has hardly left his palace in Kabul for nearly nine years. His worldview is shaped by conversations with visitors from around the country and meetings with his loyal advisors.
The uneasy relationship with the US can be traced to the presidency of George W. Bush, but it has worsened since President Barack Obama moved into the White House. Karzai even has difficulties getting a videoconference appointment with the new president; when Bush held the office, the two leaders were in touch weekly. Nor does the Afghan president get along well with Obama's special representative to Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke.
An 'Ever-Shrewd Politician'
Ambassador Eikenberry drew up a detailed psychological profile of Karzai, portraying the leader as driven by "paranoia" and "misperceptions," fluctuating between an "overly self-conscious" personality who believes his best days are behind him and an "ever-shrewd politician" who sees himself "as a nationalist hero who can save the country from being divided by the decentralization-focused agenda of Abdullah, other political rivals, neighboring countries and the US."
Nearly 19,000 of the American diplomatic dispatches that have now been made public by WikiLeaks deal exclusively or partially with Afghanistan. They reveal a political debacle and US diplomatic efforts to get the situation under control. They shed light on NATO's role in the country and on the intricate network of string-pullers behind the scenes.
ORIGINALS: THE KEY AFGHANISTAN CABLES
Following the controversial elections in August 2009, a vote that was marred by accusations of vast irregularities, the US forced Karzai into a run-off with his challenger Abdullah. Karzai's supporters in particularly were suspected of having committed election fraud on a massive scale. In the end, however, Abdullah backed out of the run-off, wanting to spare himself defeat.
"It's like a game show where you've answered one question correctly and now you can either take your 'win' and go home, or risk it all to answer the last question," Amrullah Saleh, head of Karzai's secret services, offered as his analysis of Abdullah's tactics, over a dinner in Kabul with US Senator Richard Burr. "All of Abdullah's options," Saleh said, "are coming to a dead end."
A 'Semi-Modern Aristocracy'
Abdullah's withdrawal from the run-off did great damage to Karzai, effectively robbing him of legitimacy. Furthermore, the episode did nothing to improve relations between the Afghan president and his American protectors.
Still, the true power base in Afghanistan often lies far from the political poker games of Kabul, in the hands of rural tribes, whose structures are often difficult to penetrate. The Karzais are extremely well positioned here, as shown in one detailed dispatch primarily addressing the role of Hamid Karzai's younger half-brother Ahmed Wali.
In the southern province of Kandahar, home province of the president and also the region where the Taliban movement was founded, the Popalzai clan, with tribal leader Hamid Karzai at the helm, oversees a "semi-modern aristocracy," according to the cable. Ahmed Wali Karzai, formerly the owner of a restaurant in Chicago, acts as the spider at the center of the web, trying to "increase Karzai political dominance."
Kandahar City, near the border with Pakistan, is a crossroads for goods of all types, as well as for military supplies. The tribes here vie for multi-million-dollar contracts with the Western coalition, but also for land and power. Bolstered by the authority of his brother the president, Ahmed Wali helps his family members and friends land "licit and illicit enterprises," according to a US dispatch.
These deals concern enormous budgets in the security, construction and transport industries, but also lucrative -- and naturally illegal -- control of the all-important ring road and the development of Ayno Maina, an exclusive housing community on the eastern edge of Kandahar City. "The Popalzai occupy the leadership pinnacle," reads a US Embassy dispatch.
Involvement in the Opium Trade?
According to a dispatch dated Feb. 25 of this year, Ahmed Wali appeared "nervous but eager to engage with a US official." He indignantly denied all accusations of heavy involvement in the opium trade, allegations that have festered for years. They are, Ahmed Wali said, simply part of a "campaign to discredit him." Rumors of his ostensible drug trafficking are "like a spice added to a dish to make it more enticing to eat." The embassy deputy who spoke to Ahmed Wali wrote: "He appears not to understand the level of our knowledge of his activities."
Canada, which has troops stationed in Kandahar, would prefer simply to strip Karzai's brother of power, according to a dispatch concerning the visit of the Canadian ambassador to the US. Canada, the ambassador made clear, believes this is the only way to establish law and order in the region. But when it comes to the battle against such corruption, the US sees a "serious dilemma." The Afghan government's efforts toward "bringing to justice major corrupt figures would include some of Karzai's closest relatives and allies and require the prosecution of people on whom we often rely for assistance and/or support."
The German Contribution
Germany's troops, meanwhile, are stationed at military bases all the way on the other side of the country, far to the north. They are trying to implement policies different from those in the war-torn, corrupt south. The US has precious little interest in the German concept of "networked security." Instead, Washington has focused its attention on the debate in Berlin over Germany's involvement in Afghanistan.
Countless dispatches filed by the US Embassy in Berlin discuss how the US might convince Germany to increase its involvement in Afghanistan. Again and again, the central question is how to break through Germany's legally mandated upper limit of 4,500 soldiers. "The Germans strongly support" General Stanley McChrystal's new plan to focus on protecting civilians -- support which provides a "window of opportunity," one of the dispatches notes.
Still, American diplomats didn't think much of the German troops in Afghanistan in the beginning. They considered the German base in Kunduz one of the "most maligned" military bases in the entire operation, according to a cable from September 2006. The Germans have "three times as many support troops as there are troops who work outside the base," they exhibit a "lack of military effectiveness" and "risk averseness, including restrictions on overnight and long-range patrolling."
'No Signs of Wavering'
Following a visit to Kunduz, however, a US diplomat had milder words for the German troops: "Many of the old myths, especially regarding the Provincial Reconstruction Team's military effectiveness, no longer apply. The Germans now patrol regularly throughout their area of responsibility ... averaging 130 to 150 patrols per week, and routinely overnight outside PRT compound in order to access the more remote districts. In the face of a deteriorating security situation over the past few months, the Germans have shown no signs of wavering in their commitment to the mission."
Still, until early last year the US saw the south and the east of Afghanistan as the primary theaters of war. Only in May 2009, by which time Germany had lost 19 soldiers in combat, did a US diplomat sound the alarm: "Among the misconceptions dispelled are the notions that there are only negligible security issues in the northeast," a dispatch from the US Embassy in Kabul from May 2009 reads. "In fact, there appears to be a genuine threat to future ISAF resupply convoys.... It's a bit unnerving to realize that villages literally a stone's throw from the main north-south road ... are in a security no-go area owing to the presence there of insurgent elements."
It didn't take long for the US to react. Washington drew up plans to send in American troops and Special Forces to stabilize the north. A brigade with its own helicopter fleet was sent north as was an entire reconnaissance battalion. US Special Forces were integrated into the German base at Mazar-i-Sharif. It quickly became clear to ISAF commanders in Kabul that the US would subsequently be setting the tone in northern Afghanistan.
But the US Embassy in Berlin quickly intervened and urgently advised against offending the Germans. "It is ... their belief that they are one of our most reliable Allies in Afghanistan that makes the Germans so sensitive to any perceived US criticism of their actions," reads a dispatch from September 2009. "As we go forward with our plans to deploy some 300 US Special Forces in Mazar-e-Sharif to assist the Germans in meeting the growing insurgency threat, we will want to be careful not to give the impression that we do not have faith in the Germans to do what is necessary to continue to secure the north.... It is in our interest for the Germans to continue to feel 'ownership' of this part of the country."
'Aura of Invincibility'
Still, despite renewed US focus on the north, the war has dragged on for years and weariness with the bloodshed continues to spread -- not just within NATO but among the Taliban as well. This can be seen from US diplomatic correspondence concerning a first round of negotiations between representatives of Karzai's government and the Taliban in Mecca in October 2008. "There had been an enthusiastic response from the Quetta participants," said Saudi intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud of the meeting, according to a US dispatch.
Qayum Karzai, older brother of the Afghan president, spent months putting together the delicate meeting with the help of Abdullah Anas, a former Algerian ally of Osama bin Laden. The organizers managed to bring together a 17-member delegation of negotiators over a dinner to celebrate the end of Ramadan at the invitation of the Saudi king. Still, the two sides made little progress towards a compromise. "Both sides fell short," Prince Turki bin Faisal, former head of Saudi intelligence, said according to a US cable. In addition, the dispatch continues, the Taliban leadership was "fractured."
The Saudi royal family has shown a willingness to mediate such negotiations, but remains cautious. Only if the Taliban were to truly break away from al-Qaida and "cease providing refuge to its leaders", Saudi Foreign Minister Saud bin Faisal told US Ambassador James Smith in Riyadh, would Saudi Arabia be able to provide further assistance.
Nevertheless, Prince Turki offered the US a possible exit strategy for Afghanistan. NATO and the US, he said, together with Saudi Arabia, China, Russia and Pakistan, should accelerate the hunt for Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Should these combined forces manage to catch both men, the prince suggested, it would rob the terrorists of their "aura of invincibility." Then the US could "declare victory" and withdraw its troops.