The World from Berlin The Problems Facing a Cease-Fire Agreement
The news from the Middle East this week hasn't been all bad. Israel and Hamas managed to agree to a brief cease-fire on Wednesday to allow humanitarian aid to be brought into the Gaza Strip. For a brief, three-hour window, the bombs stopped falling on the Palestinians and the rockets ceased flying across the border into Israel. The pause in the violence is, says Israel, to become a daily event.
Thursday, though, brought fresh Israeli bombardments of the Gaza Strip -- as well as worries that the violence may be spreading. At least three rockets were fired into northern Israel from Lebanon, detonating near the town of Nahariya and slightly injuring two. There were no immediate claims of responsibility for the rocket attack and the Lebanese government quickly condemned the attacks, saying it was unlikely that the militant Islamist group Hezbollah was behind it. Israel, though, promptly returned fire. Israel fought a month-long war against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in the summer of 2006 before the two sides agreed to a cease-fire.
Israel began the Gaza offensive just under two weeks ago after Hamas allowed a six-month cease-fire to expire and resumed lobbing missiles into Israel. Israeli troops have likewise moved into the Gaza Strip.
Casualties have been high. Almost 700 Palestinians have been killed in the last two weeks, many of them, according to United Nations observers, women and children. Ten Israelis have been killed as well, three of them civilians. On Tuesday night, Israel bombarded a school in the Jabaliya refugee camp, killing 39 Palestinians who had sought shelter there, many of them women and children. Israel claimed that Hamas had earlier fired rockets from the site.
Still, there is some hope that an end to the violence may soon be at hand. Talks are being held in Egypt on Thursday involving Palestinian and Israeli representatives. According to the Egyptian Ambassador to the UN Maged Abdelasis, Hamas will also be represented at the talks. Hamas wrested control of the Gaza Strip away from the Fatah Movement of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in 2007, leading to Israeli efforts to isolate the coastal region.
German commentators on Thursday are optimistic that a way forward can be found and hope that talks can lead to an immediate cease-fire.
The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung takes a look at the elements that a possible peace agreement would have to include:
"Cairo has no interest in taking over responsibility for the Gaza Strip. By pulling out of the Gaza in 2005, Israel showed that it wanted to free itself from the Palestinian area. For Israel, it would also be an improvement were all aid to enter the Gaza Strip via Egypt rather than via Israel. For Egypt, though, that would be disastrous: Cairo would then be responsible for caring for 1.5 million Palestinians."
"The Gaza Strip was administered once before by Egypt, from 1948 until the 1967 war. But given the radicalization of the Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip, Cairo would like to avoid the return of such an arrangement. The ongoing conflict between the Palestinians in the West Bank and those in the Gaza Strip is, for the moment, insoluble."
"That is a further problem facing any cease-fire agreement: Israel, the US, the Europeans and most Arab states would like to see the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank regain influence in the Gaza Strip . Hamas, though, isn't likely to give up any control, even after the Israeli offensive comes to an end . Israel's security needs, supplying the Palestinians, Egyptian fears and a realistic approach to intra-Palestinian conflict are all elements that will need to be considered in any cease-fire agreement."
The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:
"Israel's military goals are clear. The firing of rockets into Israel from the Gaza Strip must come to an end; the smuggling of weapons into the Gaza Strip from Egypt must stop; and the military arm of Hamas must be destroyed. But the political questions (are also important). Without Egypt's assistance, likely with international oversight, it will be impossible to put a stop to the cross-border smuggling of weapons. Israel is not interested in reoccupying the Gaza Strip. But it is also unclear whether Hamas could continue to control Hamas without its armed wing ... . And there is no political alternative to Hamas in the Gaza Strip. A return of Fatah under Palestinian President Abbas is difficult to imagine: His party was voted out in Gaza -- and its return at the point of Israeli bayonets would rob Fatah of what little legitimacy it still possesses in the Gaza Strip."
The Financial Times Deutschland writes:
"Should Israel and Hamas refuse to speak directly, a mediator must be made available. Egypt is a good candidate, and Turkey may be as well. The influence of a mediator could furthermore be dramatically expanded through collaboration with European countries."
"This is also important in terms of implementing the terms of a treaty. Hostility must be stopped, borders around Gaza must be opened and the smuggling of weapons must be stopped. Also, Hamas would have to agree to keep its armed groups far from the borders. The European Union must help control the borders and international observers must be made available to monitor adherence to the contract."
"All this is practically impossible if Hamas is excluded from discussions. Their influence within the Gaza Strip is too great and their interest in complying with the terms of a treaty which they haven't negotiated themselves is too small. Hamas would not have to be accepted as legitimate and no one would have to shake hands with Hamas leaders for the cameras. But it would help to encourage talks between Israel and Hamas, to talk about the modalities of border controls, and to promote inner-Palestinian reconciliation. The benefits could be enormous -- and the costs would be minimal."
The left-leaning daily, Die Tageszeitung writes:
"The only sustainable model is a two-state arrangement on the basis of the 1967 borders. They would probably have to be monitored for many years -- or decades -- by UN peacekeeping forces and bolstered by a strong US contingent. But who will put this solution into effect?"
"The UN is responsible but has been almost entirely blocked from taking action for several years: America's veto power has been a roadblock within the National Security Council and other UN bodies and, on location, the Israeli government and their allied forces have prevented UN action. The EU will remain ineffectual, as long as Germany uses its weight as a member to prevent any force being applied to the Israeli government, which would be necessary for a solution."