Christian Democrat Union (CDU) chancellor candidate Angela Merkel couldn't have asked for better weather for her recent campaign trip to the city of Cottbus in the eastern German state of Brandenburg. The coal mining region was bathed in warm August sun -- only a few popcorn clouds marred the blue sky. Still, one can't be too careful. Merkel's security detail was well armed with umbrellas. Not, however, to ward off a freak rain storm. Rather, the umbrellas were intended for the much more likely event of a shower of eggs and tomatoes.

But why the worry? After all, Merkel grew up in Brandenburg -- a native daughter so to speak. And yet, many in Germany's east no longer see her as one of their own -- indeed, she herself elected not to run explicitly as an easterner. She is, after all, the head of a party that many in former East Germany equate with rampant, uncontrolled capitalism. And of a party that has little to offer the struggling East other than vague promises of jobs and concrete promises of a sales tax hike. Her first sentence in Cottbus -- "Today I visited Poland" -- was greeted with boos and whistles. After all, people here fear that already scarce jobs will move to lower wage countries in Eastern Europe, including nearby Poland.

Fear of the East

The lack of warmth for Merkel's CDU is hardly surprising. The party prefers to talk about further painful reforms needed to fix Germany's ailing social system than the extreme economic and social difficulties facing the east. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats aren't much better. Instead of facing up to eastern unemployment rates that are twice those in the west, Schröder speaks of challenges and opportunities -- and has seven years of rising unemployment rates to look back on. Yet both the CDU and the SPD know that the fickle east was vital to the outcome of the 2002 general elections and will be again this time around -- polls indicate 28 percent support in the east for the CDU against 27 percent for the SPD. Because nobody really knows how the east will vote on Sept. 18, both parties are loath to upset or shock easterners with the cold, hard facts. The phenomenon, courtesy of the Süddeutsche Zeitung, already has a name: "Fear of the East."

The problem, of course, is that the east isn't buying it. Even if only 5 percent of them feel that the newly formed Left Party -- a leftist grouping that includes the eastern, post-communist Party of Democratic Socialism -- is the party best able to solve eastern Germany's economic problems, it leads the polls in the east with 29 percent support. With economic problems tops on the list of problems facing the region, such a paradox may seem difficult to explain away at first. Yet fully 72 percent of Eastern Germans see the new Left Party primarily as either representatives of eastern interests or as a party dedicated to social justice. In other words, even if the Left Party isn't offering up any solutions for the East's perceived misery, at least they are talking about it.

And there is a lot to talk about. Unemployment in many regions is well over 20 percent. The landscape has never "bloomed" as once promised by former Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Instead, an amount of money equivalent to 4 percent of Germany's gross national product is sent to former East Germany every year -- €1.4 trillion since 1989. Yet despite the transfer, most of which has gone into pension payments, unemployment benefits and infrastructure improvements, eastern incomes are dropping relative to those in the west and 40 percent of net household incomes in the east come from the national coffers. In addition, since 1990, the east has lost 2 million inhabitants as the young flee westwards for work and job training programs.

Tired of hearing about it

These problems, though, are ongoing and have been around at least since the last election. Problem is, people in the west are getting tired of hearing about them. Indeed, Edmund Stoiber of CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, was likely speaking for many on August 5, when he said the upcoming election should not be decided in the east. His comments -- in reference to the popularity of the Left Party -- that "only the stupidest calves choose their own butcher," was likewise not terribly far from what many westerners are thinking.

But Stoiber's insulting of eastern voters  did candidate Merkel no favors in trying to win over her own backyard. Instead, it reinforced the east's wariness of the CDU, which, combined with the SPD's dismal track record in the east over the last seven years and the rise of the Left Party makes the region even less predictable than in 2002.